In message , at 21:39:44 on Thu, 7 Nov 2019,
Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 16:35:39 on Thu, 7 Nov 2019,
Recliner remarked:

Someone trying to catch HEx from T4 will actually have to start their
journey on a Crossrail train and change at Central, and perhaps again at
Paddington, rather than just taking a through train. They'll be able to
realise their mistake while looking at the route map on the Crossrail
train.

By then they've bought their ticket. On their next trip to England they
may make a different choice.

Yup, HEx may only catch them the once, and probably only in one direction.
Not a good long-term business model.

You are over-estimating the willingness of the sort of person whose
normal policy is "no-one got fired getting a taxi end to end", to start
grappling with London's commuter rail services.

Not at all: the keenest taxi users use taxis anyway, not HEx.

The target market is those who *can* be persuaded to try the airport
express instead.

For many people, Paddington just isn't in the right place, even to get
a taxi.

HEx's ridership, exceeding their estimates, appears to prove this wrong.

And you seem to under-estimate the effort in getting from the HEx Padd
platform to the taxi rank;

It's pretty easy, actually. And a very similar experience to seeking a
taxi rank at an airport.

many Crossrail stations will have more convenient taxi ranks.

Nominate one, and we'll see what it's like when the station eventually
opens.

People, particularly with luggage, or if travelling as a couple or family,
will find a door-to-door taxi much more convenient than taking a train part
of the way, then getting a taxi. So HEx only gets a subset of possible taxi
users. And that subset will shrink when Crossrail gets going.

No-one has claimed they get the whole market, but it has successfully
got the market it projected.

How would they even know (or care) what the cheaper fare was on
Crossrail?

Probably large signs advertising Crossrail's lower prices. They'll also see
the much more useful route map.

People navigating an unfamiliar airport like Heathrow will be suffering
from sign-blindness. There's simply too much going on. That why (whether
you approve of it or not) the HEx ticket sellers have an easy time.

Even assuming that a railhead at one of the Crossrail stations in
central London is a compellingly shorter taxi-ride to their ultimate
destination than Paddington.

Not just central London: Ealing Broadway may be more convenient for people
heading to west London, and people going to the City or Canary Wharf would
be crazy to take HEx rather than Crossrail.

I agree that if you are going to Canary Wharf then Crossrail should be a
better choice, but you have to persuade people it's better than the
average big city commuter railway.

Ealing Broadway (in general not just the station) is rather inhospitable
as a railhead. I don't think I'd recommend it for a novice overseas
visitor.

--
Roland Perry