On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 14:37:34 +0100
Recliner wrote:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 10:58:10 +0000 (UTC), wrote:

On Thu, 18 Jun 2020 23:14:02 +0100
"Clive D.W. Feather" wrote:
In article , writes
It is, a virus that unlike flu produces no symptoms in the vast majority of
people and in the ones that do get symptoms they're usually mild. Excuse me
if I don't panic about it. Sometimes I think that given half a chance the
government and BBC would play the Jaws music in the background whenever they

talked about it, its become that farcically overplayed.

Excess deaths this year, compared with the 5 year average, are greater
than the Blitz and more than half the UK civilian deaths in WW2. That's
not trivial or overplayed.

Deaths are up by 25% on this time last year. Its hardly the zombie apocalypse.

Yes it would probably be higher without lockdown but I suspect not much given
how many people ignored it anyway.

Particularly, if the growing suspicions that the virus arrived here
earlier than previously thought, and via many more people, are proven
right, then the input data in the models was probably wrong. The virus
might have been spreading much longer, and with more points of origin,
than thought, and therefore more slowly than calculated. Or more
people than thought have fought it off, without showing antibodies to
it. So the IC model's apoplectic forecast of explosive growth might
have been based on the wrong initial data.

Well indeed. And given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can
say that the model needed a bit of tweaking.

From your favourite tabloid:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...high-the-scien
tist-who-wants-lockdown-lifted-faster-sunetra-gupta

To be fair I mentally divide Guardian journalists into the science journos
who know what they're talking about the woken idiots who make up the rest.