In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:
given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.
Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.
Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate.
If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.
The question is, how much of that was sheer incompetence, and how much
trying to manage the degree of panic?
--
Roland Perry