Thread: PT today
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Old June 20th 20, 10:56 AM posted to uk.transport.london
Recliner[_4_] Recliner[_4_] is offline
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Default PT today

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.


Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate.


If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

The question is, how much of that was sheer incompetence, and how much
trying to manage the degree of panic?


Well, there's certainly plenty of incompetence on display in 'Appless
Hancock's department:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/19/100000-coronavirus-antibody-tests-gathering-dust-warehouses/

Macclesfield-based medical supplier Avonchem is currently sitting on
100,000 antibody tests it bought from US firm CTK Biotech.

It says the tests could be used to help identify individuals who have had
the virus and are unlikely to get it again, giving employers, schools and
health services vital information needed to reopen the economy.

Avonchem contacted the Government in March, offering to supply the
finger-prick test, but has still not secured Public Health England (PHE) or
Department of Health (DoH) approval for the kits, despite the test being
approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)
and being widely used in other countries.

The pin-prick test is 99.4 per cent accurate, according to independent
verification obtained by Avonchem, with results available in 10 to 15
minutes. But the firm now warns it may have to ship the tests overseas if
it can not secure the necessary approval for their use in this country in
the near future.

James Gray, the managing director of Avonchem, told The Telegraph: "We're
not interested in profiteering. We want to do the right thing and give the
Government the opportunity to use them, but their lack of interest and
engagement until now has been very sad and frustrating."

It comes as the Government faces growing questions about its approach to
the purchase of antibody testing, after it emerged that PHE's coronavirus
test misses a third of positive results.