Paul Corfield wrote:

When campaigning for Boris & the local Assembly candidate in 2007/8 along
a
good chunk of the 25's route we found the policy going down very well on
the
doorstep or for that matter at bus stops.

Well I trust you're looking forward to an electoral bounce next year
in those well known Conservative areas like Manor Park, Bow, Mile End
and Whitechapel ;-)

I'd very much like to look forward to it (and also in Stratford and Forest
Gate ) but on a more serious point very few people cast & change their
vote on the basis of one single policy, even if they do agree with it.
People tend to vote more on perceptions of right priorities, competence,
honesty and so forth, which the policies feed into. It's rare for a single
issue to be such a vote switcher.

Livingstone had never really had hard competition before and I got the
impression that both his camp and a lot of the London Labour Party had
come
to regard London as theirs to govern by divine right, with elections a
formality to rubber stamp. (The reaction of many Labour activists when
Livingstone lost said it all.) And with such arrogance often comes over
things, which the Standard picked up on and ran with. I don't think they
took the prospect of defeat seriously until it was too late.

An interesting view. A quick check of history would have shown that
the leadership of the LCC and GLC switched between parties so it was
entirely plausible that the Mayoralty would too. I can't imagine that
Ken is not steeped in London's political history so he must have known
there was a risk of him losing. Still I am not familiar with the
machinations of political parties so I am probably talking cobblers

The LCC switched parties just twice in its 76 year history (Progressives
lost to Municipal Reform in 1907 who in turn lost to Labour in 1934).

The GLC was more volatile, switch control at four out of six elections
(1967, 1973, 1977, 1981) and was *always* won by the party in Opposition
nationally.

(For those wondering, the Inner London Education Authority - comprised
1965-1986 of the GLC members for the old LCC area, bar North Woolwich, and
then directly elected 1986-1990, was Conservative controlled in 1967-1970
but otherwise Labour held throughout its existence. ILEA was abolished from
1990 with education passing to the boroughs.)

However London has changed a lot since 1981 and there has been a noticeable
leftwards shift. What were once regular electoral bellweathers have steadily
shifted into safe territory with changes in both demographics and the
relationship between demographics and voting. In the last general election
the Conservatives had their weakest swing outside Scotland (and I think
Northern Ireland but the UCUNF arrangement confuses things) in London and of
the six southern & Midlands regions it was their weakest by some margin.
Current London opinion polls show the Conservatives trailing Boris by some
distance. The result overall is that London increasingly feels a naturally
left leaning city, even if the Conservatives are still able to win some
seats, and when coupled with a seemingly always popular incumbent it seemed
that the Mayoralty was going to be Labour in all but exceptional
circumstances (e.g. the nomination f-up of 2000).