Mark Goodge wrote:
On 14 Jul 2016 21:16:32 GMT, Jeremy Double put
finger to keyboard and typed:

bob wrote:
Mark Goodge wrote:

In real life, I think it's likely we will end up as members of EFTA. The
benefits are useful, and the downsides of belonging are minimal (membership
carries far fewer obligations than EU membership). Whether we then go for
EEA membership will depend, I think, on whether or not we can negotiate a
suitable set of Swiss-style bilateral treaties with the EU or whether the
only way to get what we want is to join the EEA.

The difficulty is both EEA and EFTA involve paying money to the EU and
accepting free movement of people. An awful lot of people who voted "leave"
we're under the impression these were the things they were voting to get
rid of, and will be pretty miffed if they are retained.

On the other hand, you only need a few of those who voted leave to be in
favour of EEA or EFTA membership to give an overall majority in favour of
such membership (given the reasonable assumption that those who voted
remain would be in favour of EEA or EFTA membership as the next best thing
to EU membership).

Yes, I think that's a reasonable assumption. Given the narrowness of the
vote to leave the EU, it's quite likely that in a second vote where the two
options are in or out of the EEA, then in would win.

I also think that there would be a strong preference for EFTA membership
even among Leave voters. In many respects, EFTA is what a lot of Leavers
think the EEC should have remained - a simple free trade bloc that doesn't
involve any form of political union - rather than mutating into the EU.
There's a not entirely fanciful belief that, with the UK taking a strong
lead (we would easily be the most populous and richest EFTA member), EFTA
could attract some other EU countries to jump ship and join us, leaving the
rump EU as the future United States of Europe surrounded by a set of other
independent countries of which the UK would be the most significant.

I'm sure you're right, which is exactly why the career Eurocrats would
fight tooth and nail to oppose it.