London Banter - View Single Post - Will Brexit lead to the abandonment of Crossrail2 and Turning SouthLondon Orange?

[email protected] · July 16th 16, 08:45 PM posted to uk.transport.london

In article , (tim...)
wrote:

"Robin9" wrote in message
...

Neil Williams;156835 Wrote:
On 2016-07-15 08:29:59 +0000, Robin9 said:

Her choices are limited. As the SNP will try to block Brexit in
Parliament, and will receive much support from the Liberal
Democrats and many Labour MPs, at some stage Mrs. May
will have to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act and call a
general election. She will then have a commanding majority in
The House but most of her back-benchers will be strongly
opposed to free movement.-

Whyever do you think that? Parliament is quite heavily pro-European.

Because, with the Labour Party is its present state,
the Tories would win with a huge majority. Tory Party
activists will make quite sure that most new Members
will be opposed to free movement.

If there is a snap election "tomorrow" I doubt that Tory members will
have any influence at all over the chosen candidates, there simply
isn't the time

Agree.

The balance of power
in Parliament will be changed enormously.

You may be right. Personally I can't see too many of these seats
that Labour are likely to lose changing hands to the Tories. UKIP
are going to sweep them up.

Unlike the SNP, it seems that UKIP is in no shape on the ground to pick up
the Labour seats. Look at the pattern of local government byelection results
I post each week in uk.politics.electoral. UKIP's vote has been falling with
Labour winning their safe seats by default, even though they are losing a
few more marginal seats to the Tories. UKIP often can't find candidates to
defend their seats. One of this week's four Lib Dem gains was a gain in such
a seat.

Though I suspect my prediction is not going to be tested (it's only
for valid now, don't extrapolate it to 2020 - yet. A week is a long
time in politics a lot will change by then, for good or bad).

I tend to agree with you there.

--
Colin Rosenstiel