London Banter - View Single Post - Will Brexit lead to the abandonment of Crossrail2 and Turning SouthLondon Orange?

Recliner[_3_] · July 18th 16, 09:28 AM posted to uk.transport.london

tim... wrote:

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Robin9 wrote:

tim...;156926 Wrote:
"Robin9" wrote in message
...-

Neil Williams;156835 Wrote:-
On 2016-07-15 08:29:59 +0000, Robin9 said:
-
Her choices are limited. As the SNP will try to block Brexit in
Parliament, and will receive much support from the Liberal
Democrats and many Labour MPs, at some stage Mrs. May
will have to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act and call a
general election. She will then have a commanding majority in
The House but most of her back-benchers will be strongly
opposed to free movement.-

Whyever do you think that? Parliament is quite heavily pro-European.

Neil
--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the @ to reply.-

Because, with the Labour Party is its present state,
the Tories would win with a huge majority. Tory Party
activists will make quite sure that most new Members
will be opposed to free movement.-

If there is a snap election "tomorrow" I doubt that Tory members will
have
any influence at all over the chosen candidates, there simply isn't the
time
-
The balance of power
in Parliament will be changed enormously.-

You may be right. Personally I can't see too many of these seats that
Labour are likely to lose changing hands to the Tories. UKIP are going
to
sweep them up.

Though I suspect my prediction is not going to be tested (it's only for

valid now, don't extrapolate it to 2020 - yet. A week is a long time in

politics a lot will change by then, for good or bad).

tim

There is no reason to expect an snap election in the next
few weeks. In my earlier post I said "at some stage." First,
the Fixed Term Parliament Act will have to be repealed.

The need to for Mrs. May to call an election will eventually
dawn on political commentators and soon the idea will become
common political currency. When that happens, Tory activists
will concentrate their minds on what they need to do to make
sure their Government can shrug off the SNP and the LD and
work towards the result most of us want.

There's no need to repeal the act to hold an election before 2020. There
can be either a vote of no confidence or the House of Commons, with the
support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats),
resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".

The SNP and LDs would presumably support the motion,

why?

neither are in any state to afford to fight another election

The LD's are broke generally and the SNP have just had to pay for three.

The LDs think they'd win back some seats in pro-EU areas, and they're
probably right. The SNP would make a new independence referendum to stay in
the EU their main theme. And they'd win without spending very much.

but some Labour
members would also have to do so to get 434 votes. With the deep split in
Labour, one or other of the parliamentary Labour parties would probably be
happy to do so.

why, what's in it for them?

The Corbynistas would see it as a way of dislodging the hated 'Blairite'
anti-Corbyn MPs. And they think they'd win, too.