Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 16:35:39 on Thu, 7 Nov 2019,
Recliner remarked:

Someone trying to catch HEx from T4 will actually have to start their
journey on a Crossrail train and change at Central, and perhaps again at
Paddington, rather than just taking a through train. They'll be able to
realise their mistake while looking at the route map on the Crossrail
train.

By then they've bought their ticket. On their next trip to England they
may make a different choice.

Yup, HEx may only catch them the once, and probably only in one direction.
Not a good long-term business model.

You are over-estimating the willingness of the sort of person whose
normal policy is "no-one got fired getting a taxi end to end", to start
grappling with London's commuter rail services.

Not at all: the keenest taxi users use taxis anyway, not HEx. For many
people, Paddington just isn't in the right place, even to get a taxi. And
you seem to under-estimate the effort in getting from the HEx Padd platform
to the taxi rank; many Crossrail stations will have more convenient taxi
ranks.

People, particularly with luggage, or if travelling as a couple or family,
will find a door-to-door taxi much more convenient than taking a train part
of the way, then getting a taxi. So HEx only gets a subset of possible taxi
users. And that subset will shrink when Crossrail gets going.


How would they even know (or care) what the cheaper fare was on
Crossrail?

Probably large signs advertising Crossrail's lower prices. They'll also see
the much more useful route map.


Even assuming that a railhead at one of the Crossrail stations in
central London is a compellingly shorter taxi-ride to their ultimate
destination than Paddington.

Not just central London: Ealing Broadway may be more convenient for people
heading to west London, and people going to the City or Canary Wharf would
be crazy to take HEx rather than Crossrail.