In message , at
12:01:20 on Tue, 15 Feb 2005, Dan Gravell
remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
Most of the commuter rail in and out of London is at bursting point,
and has nowhere to scale *to*. It is at maximum capacity.

Well yes, but as it is supporting 90% of the load, it has clearly
scaled thus far... Which is why more rail should be built before other
transportation modes, but anyway...

The issue is that some individuals still appear to consider the
private motor vehicle (read: car), which is not scalable or anywhere
near it, a good way to get around London. A feel your statistic
proves my point.
Only 10%, which means they are the real persistent people who must
have a *very* good reason.

I think you have more faith than I.

The number of people in the car is irrelevant. Although one could easily
make a case that the people who have had bad experiences of public
transport are much more likely to be single travellers who therefore end
up one-per-car.

I walk my dog from Tooting Common back to home each night and I often
count the number of cars with two or less passengers (yes I know, sad,
but it's something that annoys me). I'd estimate a figure of around 80%
have two or less people in the car, around 50% having one. These are in
cars of all shapes and sizes, and do not count commercial vehicles.
With the quantities we are talking about, I cannot for a second believe
_all_ these people have a "very good reason", but then I guess the
discussion boils down to what a good reason is, because ultimately
that's subjective.

Being stranded, missing meetings, failure of public transport to deliver
on its timetable...

As an aside, where did you get that figure from? I've been looking
for a good stats site for a while.
From a LUL (or similar) survey done 5-8 years ago. I've no
immediate reference.

Wasn't there also a LUL one which stated some crazy stat about journeys
under one mile being performed by a car?

Yes, there are a lot of people in the suburbs who drive to the shops and
back. I'm sure they weren't counted in the survey, which was about long
distance commuting to jobs in Central London.

M4, Westway, then Marble Arch via Paddington aren't particularly
congested most of the day.

I don't think the congestion on a single given route at a specific time
of day is pertinent, we're discussing scalability of transportation.

It's pertinent in as much as it's a car journey that patently "works".
Such things encourage people to attempt ones that don't.
--
Roland Perry