Thread: timescale wrong
View Single Post
  #45   Report Post  
Old July 13th 05, 05:55 AM posted to uk.transport.london
[email protected] pvos58@yahoo.com is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity at LondonBanter: Jul 2005
Posts: 16
Default timescale fixed (was timescale wrong) w/ questions for Clive



Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article m, Roland
Perry writes
How likely is it for two Circle Line trains to be within a minute of
each other at KXSP between 8:30 and 9:00 in the morning?


If the former, it's extremely unlikely. If the latter, it's very
likely. (Noting that perhaps one in six trains on the tracks are likely
to be Circle rather than Metropolitan or H&C).


More like one in four. The trains are supposed to be 2 minutes apart,
and there are 7 Circles with a circulation time of 50 minutes. So 7
trains in 25 are Circles.

In 30 minutes there are 15 arrivals on each line. Probably 4 on (say)
the Inner Rail are Circles. So the probability of there also being a
Circle on the Outer Rail at the same time as a given one of these is
4/15, and the probability of one of the four getting a coincidence is
roughly 1 - (1 - 4/15)^4, or about 0.7. [Yes, that simplifies some
issues.]


This is why I love USENET and hate blogs

Here's what I'm still confused by... assume they really had separate
bombers for each bomb.... seems like a long time before boarding the
Piccadilly Line.

I'm guessing they synchronized the timers BEFORE they got on the
trains. Probably around 8:31 for 20 minutes or 8:36 for 15 minutes.
That would have been while they were all standing together on the KXSP
platform. That explains the Circle Line bombs.

The 311 train on Piccadilly.... you need 20 minutes to get that train?
Hell ... do you need 15 minutes to get to the 311 if you were on the
Circle Line platform when the 204 and 216 arrived?

I can't believe he got there in 5 minutes and then waited for a couple
of trains to pass so he could get one that would blow up about 45
seconds outside of the station.