I think this is a classic case of even though the numbers make sense,
they don't take account of people's mental processes. A through
journey is ALWAYS going to be more attractive than a journey where you
have to change, and if the idea is to get people out of their cars, you
have to make the system as attractive as possible.

To take just one example. From my house, I have two railway stations
within an easy walk. One is two minutes away, one six minutes away.
If I want to go to Charing Cross, I can either walk two minutes, get a
Cannon Street train and change at London Bridge. Or I can walk six
minutes and get a direct train. Which option do you think I choose?
The latter, every time.

Notwithstanding that, if they are determined to get rid of through
services, why not upgrade the shuttle, as asdf says, by way of
compensation?

Patrick