MIG wrote:
Aldwych is right in the centre of London, but that didn't save it. I
don't suppose for a moment it would have closed if it had a through
service (or why not close Temple, St Pauls or Chancery Lane?).

Well, it closed because it wasn't very well-used and needed its lifts
replacing with ones that met modern safety standards at a cost of
£millions. The same was true for Mornington Crescent, which only
reopened because Camden Town was becoming dangerously overcrowded.

Loadings and decisions are different in Central London from outer
suburbia, though. Any Z1 non-interchange station could be closed
without significantly increasing off-peak journey times, because any
point in Z1 is only a few minutes' walk from more than one Tube
station. They stay open because closing them would reduce peak capacity
(and/or make the system less safe in the peaks).

In this context, Aldwych was completely useless: even if you worked on
the Strand itself, the walk from Holborn was quicker and easier than
messing about with the shuttle. The same would've been true if Aldwych
had had a once-every-15-mins through service like Mill Hill East: 1/4
of morning commuters would have been on the platform in time for the
through train; most of the others would have gone to Holborn rather
than waiting. In the evening, most people would've gone to Holborn
rather than risk a 15-minute wait at Aldwych.

On the other hand, the walk from Mill Hill East to Finchley Central is
long enough that the Tube is still the easier option. So the Tube from
MHE only stands a serious prospect of losing out for journeys to
stations between about East Finchley and Archway (ie where parking is
still just about possible).

--
John Band
john at johnband dot org
www.johnband.org