MIG wrote:
TheOneKEA wrote:
Dave Arquati wrote:
On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased
overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make
new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to
the City.
It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think
extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus
there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that
most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the
Bakerloo Line.


It's one of those situations where "cost/benefit" simply means "cost".
The East London Line is being extended south simply because it's
already there with relatively little work, the lines already almost
connected etc.

But not because people in Lewisham and South want to go to Dalston.

In fact a Bakerloo Line extended three miles to Lewisham or beyond
would be very very useful for getting from the south east to Oxford
Street and Paddington, at Oyster prices, without inconvenient
interchanges, but also expensive to build.

For anyone trying to get from the south east to the West End or
Paddington, buses along the Old Kent Road or Peckham Road are not a
realistic alternative to NR for that kind of journey and would not be
greatly affected.

There wouldn't be any more Bakerloo overcrowding from Elephant than
there already is from Charing Cross.

I was referring to *Northern* line overcrowding north of the Elephant.
If a Bakerloo extension were constructed to somewhere like Camberwell or
Lewisham, the high relative frequency of the new extension would
probably attract people away from other networks - I mentioned bus
because of the high volume of bus traffic along Walworth Road and
Camberwell Road, but it would equally apply to rail traffic from places
like Peckham.

If someone travels from Camberwell to the City then they may currently
take a bus all the way, but with a Bakerloo extension in place, they may
switch to the Tube, changing at the Elephant. Similarly, for someone
travelling from Peckham into the City, they may switch from a train-only
journey to a Tube-only journey, again changing at the Elephant, as it
might be more convenient for their journey.

The result could be worsened overcrowding on the Northern line north of
the Elephant.


--
Dave Arquati
Imperial College, SW7
www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London