"Chris" wrote
If you look at total journey time, only someone living on Platform Five
at
Paddington will gain much more than 5 minutes by HEx-ing; too few to
maintain a premium service, I suspect.
Which is also currently the case between Hex & Connect, and plenty are
us8ing Hex....as I state above, I doubt the majority currently using
Hex go on at Paddington to use the tube now, far from it, so I think
you're mistaken in your views.

But currently, both start at Paddington; so they take HEx, and as you
suggested, probably arrived by taxi.

But once crossrail is built, many of those taxi-arrivers will find it
quicker, easier and cheaper NOT to go to Paddington at all; certainly 50%+
who arrive from the city and east of that will find it much, much quicker to
board Crossrail at Bond Street or east of there - however much they can
afford a taxi, they won't want to sit in a congestion-charge-free zone for
one and half hours. They'll use crossrail.

And having got as far as Paddington on crossrail, will they change to HEx? I
think not.

Your theory depends a loyalty to Paddington - in fact, Paddington is one of
the main reasons why crossrail will succeeed; most paddington users HATE
paddington; simply because it is in the wrong place for business users; and
even tourists tend to want to go east - and the luxury hotel market is
centred on Russell Square; the west London hotel users will mostly take the
Picc from Heathrow.