"Bruce" wrote in message

On Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:42:07 +0100, "Recliner"
wrote:

However, I think that electric trains are already so efficient that
the amount of improvement available can't be as much as cars, which
start from a much worse position. After all, you can't do as much to
improve the aerodynamics of a train as you can a car, and there
isn't an idling engine you could switch off at stations.


There is also a heck of an improvement coming in average fuel
consumption of new cars in the next few years. This will eventually
make them more than competitive on CO2 emissions with high speed rail,
which is very hungry for power, and much closer than they are now to
conventional rail.

The first commercially available volume production electric cars are
expected in 2010 from Nissan and Renault. Over the next decade, they
will revolutionise urban transport. Nissan's model will include
leasing the very expensive battery pack, which will make the purchase
price of the car competitive with comparable petrol and diesel engined
models while still costing at least 20% less to run. CO2 emissions
will be only about a third of those of conventional cars, putting them
on a par with conventional rail.

Let's put this into context. The Nissan Leaf is unlikely to reach Europe
before 2012, just before the date when you never cease telling us that
the UK will run out of electric power.

The Leaf has a claimed range of 100 miles, but most electric cars
achieve much less than the claimed range in normal driving. On a 240v
household supply, it will take eight hours to recharge, so for most
people, the maximum miles per day that they could do would be about 80,
and maybe less if they want to be sure of getting home (after all, you
can't just pop in for a fill-up when the red light comes on).

The 270kg Li-ion battery pack would add at least £6000 to the cost of
the car, so Nissan will lease them to customers for 'less than £100 per
month', which implies that it will subsidise them (covering the
expensive manufacturing and recycling costs itself). That lease cost
would get a small diesel urban run-around about 800 miles, but you still
have to pay for the electricity for the electric car, on top of the
battery lease cost.

If you do up to 1000 miles per month (which is, realistically, all the
electric car is likely to be capable of), the Leaf is likely to cost
considerably more to run (battery lease+electricity cost) than a
conventional smallish car. On top of that, you have a car with a very
limited range, which cannot be refuelled on a whim, which won't be very
nice to drive (thanks to the heavy battery pack), with uncompetitive
performance. And if you do cane it, the battery life really will
plummet.

And that's before the government decides that motoring electricity needs
to be taxed at a higher rate, just like petrol and diesel engined cars,
or electricity is rationed, as you keep asserting. And don't assume that
electric cars will keep their exemption from road tax and congestion
charges once there's enough of them to matter.

Yes, I can really see it revolutionising urban transport, and driving
the railways with their fast, long distance electric trains into
extinction.

Rail has no answer to this, other than companies like Siemens
designing *out* the ridiculous excess weight that they had previously
designed *in* to their Desiros.

Yeah, the Nissan Leaf will surely eliminate the need for electric
trains.