On Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:03:43 +0100, "Recliner"
wrote:
"Bruce" wrote in message

I understand your scepticism, but the Nissan Leaf and its Renault
equivalent (the two companies are closely linked) will be the first
available mass production electric cars. You have to start somewhere,
and this is as good a place as any. Others will follow, but so far,
only Nissan/Renault has addressed the problem of the cost of the
batteries.

But you carefully missed my other point, that cars with petrol and
diesel engines are rapidly becoming more fuel efficient. Over the
last few years, the improvement in engine efficiency has been negated
by a weight increase, for mainly safety reasons. If there hadn't been
a significant improvement in efficiency, the fuel consumption would
have gone up, as with the lardbutt Desiros.

Now, there won't be further increases in weight, so future
improvements in engine efficiency will translate directly into
improvements in fuel economy, and these will be substantial. There
simply isn't the scope for trains to make this magnitude of
performance gains, so the CO2 consumption gap between trains and cars
will be substantially reduced.

That can only be a good thing, because rail could never cope with more
than a tiny proportion of the passenger traffic that currently goes by
road. Rail has 6% of the surface passenger-km, roads 94%. So even if
rail doubled its market share to 12%, the roads would still take 88%.
The chances of rail doubling its market share without massive
development of new lines are near-zero. Just look at the high cost of
Crossrail, and of high speed inter-city lines.

So it is in everyone's interests that cars become much more frugal and
emit far less CO2, because people aren't going to give up the freedom
of travelling in their own private, secure and comfortable air
conditioned space.

Yup, I agree with all that


Noted, thanks. ;-)


, and ic engined cars surely will get
dramatically more efficient in the coming years -- not so much because
of the weight issue, but because of pressure in the US market, which
previously was little concerned about fuel efficiency or the
environment. All manufacturers are now focused on this issue like never
before.


I agree, but the impetus is the forthcoming crackdown from the EU on
average CO2 emissions for each car manufacturer.


I'm just sceptical about the wide-eyed claims made for pure-electric (as
opposed to hybrid) and hydrogen cars, whose proponents conveniently
ignore the higher fixed costs and infrastructure issues.


It's a bit like rail electrification, whose proponents also
conveniently ignore the higher fixed costs and infrastructure issues
.... ;-)