Cameron to be new PM
 

Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what he
wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

Cameron to be new PM
 

Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what he
wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

From where I'm sitting Cameron is damaged, possibly fatally and Boris
is doing a very overt bid for the party leadership, distancing himself
from the anti-PR nutters (i.e. advocating an alliance with the Lib Dems,
which is opposed by the Tory hardcore) and pretending that London voted
Tory - it didn't, Labour did much better than expected, possibly enough
to unseat Boris if transferred to 2012. For that reason my prediction
that he's a one-term Mayor is still valid.

Remember, beneath the buffoon is a cold, clever, calculating, ruthlessly
ambitious politician.

Tom

Cameron to be new PM
 

On May 7, 1:22*pm, Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what he
wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question for
London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Cameron to be new PM
 

On May 7, 1:33*pm, Tom Barry wrote:

Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what he
wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

*From where I'm sitting Cameron is damaged, possibly fatally and Boris
is doing a very overt bid for the party leadership, distancing himself
from the anti-PR nutters (i.e. advocating an alliance with the Lib Dems,
which is opposed by the Tory hardcore) and pretending that London voted
Tory - it didn't, Labour did much better than expected, possibly enough
to unseat Boris if transferred to 2012. *For that reason my prediction
that he's a one-term Mayor is still valid.

I agree. I'm pretty sure I wrote here in the early days of his
Mayorality about Boris keeping his eyes on the Westminster prizes.
Being Mayor has only ever really been a stepping stone, which is why
he makes so sure of projecting himself out to the balcony and circle
as well as the stalls.


Remember, beneath the buffoon is a cold, clever, calculating, ruthlessly
ambitious politician.

Agree again. It's what all the informed commentators say, i.e. those
with some real insight into his way of doing things.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On May 7, 2:20*pm, Mizter T wrote:

On May 7, 1:22*pm, Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what he
wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question for
London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Would a potential Chancellor Cable be any more or less sympathetic to
Crossrail? I dunno.

Cameron to be new PM
 

"Mizter T" wrote in message

On May 7, 2:20 pm, Mizter T wrote:

On May 7, 1:22 pm, Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what
he wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question
for London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Would a potential Chancellor Cable be any more or less sympathetic to
Crossrail? I dunno.

I suppose the answer depends on where the Conservative and Lib Dem
marginal seats are on the west and east sides of London. But at least
they both agree on not allowing a third Heathrow runway.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On May 7, 2:49*pm, "Recliner" wrote:

"Mizter T" wrote:

On May 7, 2:20 pm, Mizter T wrote:

On May 7, 1:22 pm, Basil Jet wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do what
he wants, although a Tory majority would have been better for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question
for London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Would a potential Chancellor Cable be any more or less sympathetic to
Crossrail? I dunno.

I suppose the answer depends on where the Conservative and Lib Dem
marginal seats are on the west and east sides of London. But at least
they both agree on not allowing a third Heathrow runway.

Yes - although I've long regarded a third runway as dead (for the next
decade or so at least - well, at the very least, the next Parliament).
Maybe that was naive - if the Liberal surge had materialised, and
there had been a Lib-Lab coalition (two massive *ifs* I know!), I
dunno if the Libs would have put it towards the top of their list of
objections, or indeed whether Lab would have cared so much about
trying to push it through.

Cameron to be new PM
 

"Mizter T" wrote in message

On May 7, 2:49 pm, "Recliner" wrote:

"Mizter T" wrote:

On May 7, 2:20 pm, Mizter T wrote:

On May 7, 1:22 pm, Basil Jet
wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do
what he wants, although a Tory majority would have been better
for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question
for London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Would a potential Chancellor Cable be any more or less sympathetic
to Crossrail? I dunno.

I suppose the answer depends on where the Conservative and Lib Dem
marginal seats are on the west and east sides of London. But at least
they both agree on not allowing a third Heathrow runway.

Yes - although I've long regarded a third runway as dead (for the next
decade or so at least - well, at the very least, the next Parliament).
Maybe that was naive - if the Liberal surge had materialised, and
there had been a Lib-Lab coalition (two massive *ifs* I know!), I
dunno if the Libs would have put it towards the top of their list of
objections, or indeed whether Lab would have cared so much about
trying to push it through.

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:
"Mizter T" wrote in message







On May 7, 2:49 pm, "Recliner" wrote:

"Mizter T" wrote:

On May 7, 2:20 pm, Mizter T wrote:

On May 7, 1:22 pm, Basil Jet
wrote:
Announcement due at 2:30pm. Presumably this will help Boris do
what he wants, although a Tory majority would have been better
for him.

I wouldn't presume any such thing - the picture's rather more
complicated. And anyway, it's not like there's going to be any more
money sloshing around - quite the reverse. The big ticket question
for London remains Crossrail.

(Can one have a "big ticket question"...?!)

Would a potential Chancellor Cable be any more or less sympathetic
to Crossrail? I dunno.

I suppose the answer depends on where the Conservative and Lib Dem
marginal seats are on the west and east sides of London. But at least
they both agree on not allowing a third Heathrow runway.

Yes - although I've long regarded a third runway as dead (for the next
decade or so at least - well, at the very least, the next Parliament).
Maybe that was naive - if the Liberal surge had materialised, and
there had been a Lib-Lab coalition (two massive *ifs* I know!), I
dunno if the Libs would have put it towards the top of their list of
objections, or indeed whether Lab would have cared so much about
trying to push it through.

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

Cameron to be new PM
 

"MIG" wrote in message
...
On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

A few pessimists seem to have suggested the Abbey Wood branch could be
truncated north of the river, which could save a few quid...

Paul S

Cameron to be new PM
 

On 7 May, 16:43, "Paul Scott" wrote:
"MIG" wrote in message

...

On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:
The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? *Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

A few pessimists seem to have suggested the Abbey Wood branch could be
truncated north of the river, *which could save a few quid...

Paul S

Well, they could run through from Barking on existing lines. Not much
point extending to Barking Creek if it doesn't cross the river.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On Fri, 7 May 2010 16:43:50 +0100, "Paul Scott"
wrote:


"MIG" wrote in message
...
On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

A few pessimists seem to have suggested the Abbey Wood branch could be
truncated north of the river, which could save a few quid...


There is an option that has recently been worked on which would cut
Crossrail back to Heathrow in the west.

Other options that have been worked on include: shortening the station
tunnels to suit the maximum 10-car trains, rather than building them
for 12-car trains which are not expected to be needed for the next 30
years; building the running tunnels more slowly meaning that fewer
tunnelling machines would need to be purchased; cutting back the Abbey
Wood branch (as mentioned above); and the most draconian option, which
is to continue with the enabling works and portal construction plus
some preparatory station works while delaying the construction of the
running tunnels and station tunnels for several years until the
economy has improved sufficiently.

It is quite difficult to imagine that the current Crossrail scheme
will survive unchanged. This applies regardless of which party or
combination of parties takes power.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On May 7, 6:57*pm, Bruce wrote:

On Fri, 7 May 2010 16:43:50 +0100, "Paul Scott"
wrote:

"MIG" wrote:

On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? *Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

A few pessimists seem to have suggested the Abbey Wood branch could be
truncated north of the river, *which could save a few quid...

There is an option that has recently been worked on which would cut
Crossrail back to Heathrow in the west. *

Other options that have been worked on include: shortening the station
tunnels to suit the maximum 10-car trains, rather than building them
for 12-car trains which are not expected to be needed for the next 30
years; *building the running tunnels more slowly meaning that fewer
tunnelling machines would need to be purchased; cutting back the Abbey
Wood branch (as mentioned above); and the most draconian option, which
is to continue with the enabling works and portal construction plus
some preparatory station works while delaying the construction of the
running tunnels and station tunnels for several years until the
economy has improved sufficiently.

It is quite difficult to imagine that the current Crossrail scheme
will survive unchanged. *This applies regardless of which party or
combination of parties takes power.

You've changed your tune.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On Fri, 7 May 2010 11:28:17 -0700 (PDT), Mizter T
wrote:


On May 7, 6:57*pm, Bruce wrote:

On Fri, 7 May 2010 16:43:50 +0100, "Paul Scott"
wrote:

"MIG" wrote:

On 7 May, 14:59, "Recliner" wrote:

The commentators seem to be pretty clear that it won't be very long
before there's another general election (a couple of years max), so I
suspect that Crossrail will remain, though perhaps in a truncated form,
but no other large transport projects will progress very much.

In what sense can Crossrail be truncated? *Do you mean no
electrification beyond Hayes and Harlington?

If so, it won't really be Crossrail, just a pointless tunnel.
Perfectly plausible of course.

A few pessimists seem to have suggested the Abbey Wood branch could be
truncated north of the river, *which could save a few quid...

There is an option that has recently been worked on which would cut
Crossrail back to Heathrow in the west. *

Other options that have been worked on include: shortening the station
tunnels to suit the maximum 10-car trains, rather than building them
for 12-car trains which are not expected to be needed for the next 30
years; *building the running tunnels more slowly meaning that fewer
tunnelling machines would need to be purchased; cutting back the Abbey
Wood branch (as mentioned above); and the most draconian option, which
is to continue with the enabling works and portal construction plus
some preparatory station works while delaying the construction of the
running tunnels and station tunnels for several years until the
economy has improved sufficiently.

It is quite difficult to imagine that the current Crossrail scheme
will survive unchanged. *This applies regardless of which party or
combination of parties takes power.

You've changed your tune.


No, I haven't. I was merely reporting what is happening at Crossrail
without making any comment on whether I agree with it, or not. For
the last few weeks there has been a massive effort going into costing
various alternative scenarios so there will be ready-made answers to
the new government's questions.

In any case, the economic situation has got considerably worse since I
last commented on whether I thought Crossrail would go ahead. The
economy is now in a very desperate state - in some respects worse than
in Greece.

Given that changed situation, I would now be surprised if Crossrail
isn't delayed, re-phased, cut back or postponed, at least in parts.
Things were very different only a few months ago.

Now that savings in government spending of £60-70 billion per annum
are being discussed. It is difficult to ignore a single £16 billion
scheme for which the immediate need may no longer be so great because
of this severe recession.

But I repeat - I made no comment on whether I agreed it should be cut
back, or not. That has to be a decision for the elected politicians.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On Fri, 7 May 2010, Basil Jet wrote:

Announcement due at 2:30pm.

Stuck on a number 87 somewhere, is he?

tom

--
This isn't right. This isn't even wrong.

Cameron to be new PM
 

On 08/05/2010 18:55, Tom Anderson wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2010, Basil Jet wrote:

Announcement due at 2:30pm.

Stuck on a number 87 somewhere, is he?

He got there at last!