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Old September 23rd 16, 11:12 AM posted to uk.transport.london
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Default Is Uber Bleeding to Death?

On Fri, 23 Sep 2016 08:42:57 +0000 (UTC), d wrote:

On Thu, 22 Sep 2016 19:20:52 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
tim... wrote:
It's a nonsense to suggest that this will be unique to Uber's cars


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...lf-driving-fle
t-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on


Of course those cars still have someone sitting behind the wheel so the
whole thing is nothing more than a marketing gimmick. I'll give it a couple
of years before they quietly revert back to human drivers until the technology
is properly ready.


Yes, it's still at the alpha test stage, and human intervention will
be needed from time to time at the moment. During this test phase,
they actually have two staff on board, one a driver to intervene if
needed, and the other keeping notes on all that happens. The
technology will take several years to mature, and will only be usable
unsupervised where there are very detailed maps, which largely don't
exist yet.

The optimists expect unmanned cabs to be on the road in the early
2020s, but probably only in areas that have the detailed street maps
(much more detailed than Google Maps). So Uber would only offer one if
the journey is entirely within the mapped area (and I wouldn't expect
London to be one of the first cities to get them). I presume that
they'll have a different product name (ie, along with UberX, UberXL,
UberBLACK, UberSUV, UberLUX, UberPOOL, etc) at a lower price, so
customers can choose whether or not they want one.

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Old September 23rd 16, 11:17 AM posted to uk.transport.london
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On Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:01:31 +0100, "tim..."
wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 21 Sep 2016 15:03:48 +0100, David Cantrell
wrote:

On Mon, Sep 19, 2016 at 03:10:42PM +0100, tim... wrote:

spending billions on trying to win a market of millions is just
silly

Becoming the default choice for taxi services throughout the
developed
world (which is what they seem to be going for) is not worth mere
millions.

What they're doing is very similar to what Amazon did early on. They
consistently lost money for the first few years, and only
occasionally
made a profit since. It's only very recently that they started to
make
vaguely reliable looking profits. Amazon spent those profitless years
buying the market.

Exactly. People who only look at the deliberate short-term losses are
ignoring the bigger picture.

It's possible for Amazon to kill the competition and for it not to come
back
again, leaving you in an unassailable position to reap the rewards of
previous work

Once Uber has established in a city, competition can continually spring
up
again meaning that you are continually fighting it. There is no path
to
killing it off completely (other than making your price so low you
don't
make a profit). There are always new drivers prepared to compete with
you.

It's an international business, which benefits from network effects.

It's that network focus that makes it vulnerable in each of its local
markets.

only a percentage of your customers in Delhi are going to be
Europeans/Americans taking advantage of already having Uber on their
phone
when they get off the plane. Many of the potential customers are going
to
be locals who can switch to local competition if the incentives are
there.

Also,
the long-term game plan is to have self-driving cars,

which I don't believe they will be able to achieve. To do this they have
to
hoover up all of the finance available for "buying" rental cars and
taxis.
This is an order of magnitude more funding that they currently need.

Are the backers really going to put all their eggs in one basket for this
operation, I think not.

There will be plenty of micro operations of autonomous car pooling that
people will want to invest into spread their risk.

which need things
like highly detailed maps that new competitors won't have:

of course they will

All of the parties interest in producing autonomous cars are working on
(or
have a partner who is) such maps, it isn't just self driving taxis who
have
to find their own way from Waterloo to Kings Cross. All domestically
owned
cars will have to be able to do it as well.

It's a nonsense to suggest that this will be unique to Uber's cars


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...month-is06r7on


I know

but they can afford one city as a trial on the basis of their current
funding

but scaling it up to 10,000 cities just isn't going to be cheap, and I defy
them to find the funding for such.


They won't be rolling driverless cabs worldwide in one go. It'll
happen in stages, and I wouldn't expect large, complex cities to be
among the first to get them. And Uber isn't exactly facing a cash flow
crisis: it has around $4bn in the bank. That will pay for mapping
quite a few cities.

But I'm sure Uber's investors will be keen to seek your expert advice
on Uber's prospects, as you appear to know so much more about the
company than they do.
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Old September 23rd 16, 11:49 AM posted to uk.transport.london
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Default Is Uber Bleeding to Death?


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:01:31 +0100, "tim..."
wrote:



I know

but they can afford one city as a trial on the basis of their current
funding

but scaling it up to 10,000 cities just isn't going to be cheap, and I
defy
them to find the funding for such.


They won't be rolling driverless cabs worldwide in one go.


That's my point

if, once proven, they don't roll out in London/Paris/Rome/loads of other
places at the same time, someone else will

The resident of London, Paris, Rome and loads of other places are not going
to sit back and wait for Uber to reach them with the benefits of driverless
cars, they are going to expect it to arrive today. And there *will* be a PV
prepared to fund that.

It'll
happen in stages, and I wouldn't expect large, complex cities to be
among the first to get them. And Uber isn't exactly facing a cash flow
crisis: it has around $4bn in the bank. That will pay for mapping
quite a few cities.


But it won't pay for the capital costs of the taxi fleets for 10,000 cities

It will pay for one (100,000 cabs at 40K each - 100,000 is half the number
of taxis in London, and I very much doubt that first generation autonomous
cars will cost under 40K).

But I'm sure Uber's investors will be keen to seek your expert advice
on Uber's prospects, as you appear to know so much more about the
company than they do.


PVs simply do not put all their eggs into one basket (they expect a failure
rate of 2 out of 3).

funding the autonomous taxi needs of 10,000 cities will require more than
the few tech companies currently prepared to fund Uber. It will require the
whole capital market.

And the whole market is not going to put all its eggs in the Uber basket.

And ISTM likely that many of the backers know diddly squat about Uber's
prospects, they are backing a punt and hoping for the bigger fool.

I have seen many a company, backed by PVs who talked up their prospects in
the same way that Uber are, that ultimately failed. Rhetoric is worth
nothing. The only difference her is that Uber are bigger (and then the
fallacy of sunk cost helps to keep them alive longer than they might
otherwise be allowed to prove themselves - this may be enough, it may not)

tim









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Old September 23rd 16, 01:48 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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On 22/09/2016 16:12, tim... wrote:

"Mizter T" wrote:

FWIW, Uber runs a v successful referral scheme - I think currently in
London it's £15 credit for the new customer, £10 for the referrer
(only valid on one journey though).


still?

I would have thought that with all the banter on social medial Uber
needed no more help with finding customers, even in locations where they
are new players.


There's always new customers to be had, and a little word of mouth
encouragement might just help someone who's heard of them to actually
install and use the app.

There are also occasional non-referral sign-up offers such as this one:
https://www.vouchercodes.co.uk/uber.com
(£15 credit for new customers.)
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Old September 23rd 16, 01:53 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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On 22/09/2016 08:46, Roland Perry wrote:

In message , at 19:54:50 on Wed, 21 Sep
2016, Mizter T remarked:
Because they aren't subsidising London anymore.

It is now a mature market (FSVO).

It is (subset of) RoW that gets the subsidies.


FWIW, Uber runs a v successful referral scheme - I think currently in
London it's £15 credit for the new customer, £10 for the referrer
(only valid on one journey though).


Is the £25 deducted off the drivers who win those lucky rides, or is it
Uber? If the latter that's something which could be called a subsidy
(because the drivers are getting 80% of £25, more than the passengers
are paying).



Uber covers the free credit. Somehow I don't think drivers would be very
keen on covering the free credit, given that they aren't going to have a
direct relationship with the customer on an ongoing basis! (You cannot
request a specific driver via the Uber app.)


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Old September 23rd 16, 01:58 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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Default Is Uber Bleeding to Death?


On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote:

On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said:

it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service


It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX,
the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle.

What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo?


Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX.

That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's
odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which
previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out.


Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the
larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The
drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty
reliable vehicle.

Prii / Priora / Priores etc!
https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/02/plural-of-prius-prii-not-according-to-latin-experts/
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Old September 23rd 16, 05:18 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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Default Is Uber Bleeding to Death?

On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote
(in article ):


On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote:

On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said:

it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service


It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX,
the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle.

What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo?


Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX.

That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's
odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which
previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out.


Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the
larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The
drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty
reliable vehicle.

Prii / Priora / Priores etc!
https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/0...according-to-l
atin-experts/


Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber
and otherwise) and operators for several reasons:

- Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or
should that be off personal contract)
- Reliability
- Passenger romfort

.... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption.

One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in /
to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him
Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract
a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent
£100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage.

And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in
London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for
similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order.

Ken

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Old September 23rd 16, 05:23 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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On 23/09/2016 18:18, Water musician wrote:

On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote
[...]
That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's
odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which
previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out.


Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the
larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The
drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty
reliable vehicle.

Prii / Priora / Priores etc!
https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/02/plural-of-prius-prii-not-according-to-latin-experts/


Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber
and otherwise) and operators for several reasons:

- Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or
should that be off personal contract)
- Reliability
- Passenger romfort

... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption.

One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in /
to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him
Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract
a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent
£100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage.

And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in
London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for
similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order.


Thanks Ken, seems like they really are good vehicles.

And - something not yet mentioned - they're quieter, which is a plus too.
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Old September 23rd 16, 07:33 PM posted to uk.transport.london
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Water musician wrote:
On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote
(in article ):


On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote:

On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said:

it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service

It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX,
the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle.

What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo?

Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX.

That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's
odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which
previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out.


Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the
larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The
drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty
reliable vehicle.

Prii / Priora / Priores etc!
https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/0...according-to-l
atin-experts/


Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber
and otherwise) and operators for several reasons:

- Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or
should that be off personal contract)
- Reliability
- Passenger romfort

... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption.

One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in /
to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him
Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract
a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent
£100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage.

And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in
London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for
similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order.


Apart from the significant fuel saving, I think they're also lighter on
brakes and tyres, thanks to the regenerative braking.

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Old September 24th 16, 11:51 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Recliner[_3_] View Post
Robin9 wrote:

'Recliner[_3_ Wrote:
;158116']Robin9
wrote:-

'Recliner[_3_ Wrote: -
;158096']Robin9
wrote:-

'Recliner[_3_ Wrote: -
;158092']Robin9
wrote:-

'Recliner[_3_ Wrote: -
;158072']Robin9
wrote:-

tim...;158053 Wrote: -
came into my in box via my linkedin account

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uber-...jared-carmel-2

posted without comment (for now)

tim



---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus-

Interesting. What surprises me is that Uber is deemed to be
losing money hand over fist. Not making enough profit to
provide investers with a satisfactory return is one thing.
Actually making a substantial loss is another. As Uber's
drivers are paid only a percentage of what customers are
charged, in London at least the business must show a profit
before overheads are included. Are Uber's overheads far
too high?-

Uber's overheads are famously low. Why do you think Uber is making a
profit
in London? It doesn't even make a profit in the US.

-

If Uber can't make a profit before overheads are included,
they must be grossly incompetent. Remember how the London
minicab trade works. The driver is deemed to be self-employed,
and pays for the car, insurance and petrol himself. The customer
pays Uber by credit card and Uber pays a small percentage to the
driver.

As Uber seems to have taken a huge share of the market away
from both Hackney cabs and minicabs, the number of jobs per
day must be in the thousands. Multiply that number of jobs by
an average net revenue of, say, five pounds and you arrive at a
gross income which must be more than the cost of a minimal
office set-up.-

Uber is investing in market growth. That's where the big money goes.
So
it
subsidies drivers to get into new markets, and spends a lot on
marketing. I
dare say it spends a lot on political lobbying as well.

The really big losses were in China, but that's now stopped, so from
now
on, the losses should taper. But it's still fighting competitive
battles
in
many markets, so bottom line profits will remain illusive.

It also seems to be spending a lot on driverless technologies, as it
expects these to be cheaper than drivers within a few years. But that
means
it will need to invest in the cars.-

I'm discussing the situation in London, and there is no
indication that Uber are subsidising their drivers here. I am
sceptical that they do anywhere, and I'm not persuaded
merely because it is stated on the Internet.

I'd like someone who believes that Uber are subsidising their
drivers to explain in detail how this is done.-

Google is your friend:

http://tinyurl.com/zrtmng4

http://tinyurl.com/h4a9dz4

http://tinyurl.com/grxowog

http://tinyurl.com/j3fknwr

http://tinyurl.com/meu2elv

http://tinyurl.com/zrfhsdl

http://tinyurl.com/pyo4b3m

http://tinyurl.com/zk2hg4u

http://tinyurl.com/h7aac2h-

Google is not my friend and none of those links will
change that. -

In other words, your mind is made up, regardless of the evidence.

-
Not one persuaded me that Uber are genuinely
subsidising their drivers anywhere, least of all in London.
It is clear from those links that the idea of Uber's losses
arising from subsidies to drivers came from their financial
director, Guatam Gupta, who seems to have made no
attempt to substantiate the contention. As is the way of
the Internet, those unquantified assertions have been
repeated by people who are trying to pretend that they
have done original research and are in possession of
confidential information. -

It looks like you've not read many of the links then.

-
There is also the issue of semantics. Some of those links
show people confused by the differences between a subsidy,
a guarantee and a loss-leading market strategy.-

What confusion? Uber often pays its drivers more than the usual 80% of
the
fare the customer paid. That's a driver subsidy, which hits Uber's
bottom
line. It doesn't matter why Uber chooses to do it.

In the UK, new customers get a £15 discount. That's paid by Uber, not
the
driver. In other words, a driver subsidy:

http://tinyurl.com/z5hsuer

https://www.vouchercodes.co.uk/uber.com

So do you still maintain that "there is no indication that Uber are
subsidising their drivers here. I am sceptical that they do anywhere,
and
I'm not persuaded merely because it is stated on the Internet"?

And if you disregard everything you read on the internet, what are you
doing here?


The facetious answer to your ill-mannered question
is that I'm trying to learn the mind-set of people who
do believe everything they read on the Internet.


And it appears that you only believe things on the internet if they are
things you believed already. If you didn't already believe it, you believe
it must be a lie. So, I ask again, why are you here? You're not going to
believe anything you don't already believe, so reading all these lies must
be very tedious for you.


The point you seem to have missed is that all those links
are repeating and elaborating on an assertion made by
someone who has a vested interest in propagating the
idea that Uber are subsidising drivers. Can you find
anywhere a confirmation by a driver that they are being
subsidised?


How would they even know? The customer pays Uber directly.


Can you find any verification that the
calculations quoted are valid?


Why should I? You're the one doubting everything, with no evidence to
support your assertions. Disprove it yourself, if you can. Simply saying
you disbelieve everything you don't like doesn't count.


Another point you seem to be overlooking is that Uber
now find it necessary to advertise regularly for drivers on
LBC and on the Internet. Why do they? Almost certainly
because they are losing drivers.


You seem to have forgotten that Uber is growing as fast as possible. That's
why it constantly advertises for both drivers and customers. Undoubtedly
there will be significant driver turnover, but even if there wasn't, Uber
would still be advertising for more drivers.


If drivers are being
subsidised and/or paid 80% of the fare paid, why are they
leaving Uber? Why do so many phone-in programs on the
radio have drivers complain that they can't make a living
working with Uber?


Obviously some can't. That doesn't mean that others don't. But just
because Uber feels the need to sometimes subside drivers doesn't mean that
they're well paid. Uber has a policy of reducing fares to gain market
share, which hurts driver income. Uber sometimes subsidises drivrs to
reduce this effect.

In any case, no-one has said that Uber always subsidises drivers, just that
it does so often enough to make hefty losses. This was particularly the
case in China, but that source of losses has now ceased.

Incidentally, the normal payment to drivers is 80% of the fare. It's a
subsidy when driver payments are more than that, for example when Uber
gives introductory discounts to new customers without cutting driver
payments. It's also a subsidy if drivers are guaranteed a certain level of
business, but the drivers may not see it that way.

But of course you won't accept any of this as you didn't believe it
already.
You continue to repeat figures and assertions that you've
picked up from the Internet and present them as reliable,
proven facts. Your suggestion that because I don't believe
everything on the Internet, therefore I shouldn't use it at all
is childish nonsense.

Uber's continuing growth in London is open to question, as is
your belief that it is the reason Uber advertises for drivers.
Conversations I've had with various people, including minicab
drivers, indicate that in London the market for cabs is
becoming more settled.

Like those Internet scribes in whom you have unquestioning
faith, you have difficulty understanding what constitutes a
subsidy.

If Bob the plumber turns down a low paying job in December
when he is busy but in January accepts it when it is offered
again, he takes a pay cut. He does not however pay less for
his plumbing supplies in January. The fact that he gave a price
reduction has nothing to do with his suppliers, and they are not
being subsidised when they demand normal prices any more
than you subsidise Tesco by paying their normal price for milk
and butter.

If Uber lease a car for £100.00 a week and rent that car
to a driver for £ 50.00 a week, that unquestionably constitutes
a subsidy. If Uber charge a customer £75.00 to Gatwick and pay
the driver £40.00, that is their normal business practice. If Uber
later find that to keep market share they need to reduce their
price to £60.00 but still find it necessary to pay the driver £40.00,
that does not constitute a subsidy. They are paying the normal
price. (I've still to find confirmation from any Uber customer that
they are being charged less than they were previously)


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