On 15/12/2019 10:25, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 09:19, Robin wrote:
On 14/12/2019 21:55, Graeme Wall wrote:

Actually the replacement rate is about 2.4 children per couple to
allow for infertility, , infant mortality, gay couples and those who
just don't want children. Currently the average is nearer 1.8 so in
the long term the population of this country is going to shrink
fairly rapidly. The downside is the population is getting older. It's
a phenomenon that is being repeated across the world as people get
better educated and the religious ties are loosened.


I don't know what you mean by "long term" but the ONS project the
population of the UK continuing to increase through to 2043.



After the middle of the century as the offspring of the baby boomers
start to die out and the influence of effective contraception took hold
from the mid 1960s onward.


Thanks for calibrating "long term".

While you may of course be right I'll merely note that the statisticians
at Eurostat do not agree. They project the UK population continuing to
increase (albeit more slowly) through to 2100.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/po...ta/main-tables

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

On 15/12/2019 10:44, Robin wrote:
On 15/12/2019 10:25, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 09:19, Robin wrote:
On 14/12/2019 21:55, Graeme Wall wrote:

Actually the replacement rate is about 2.4 children per couple to
allow for infertility, , infant mortality, gay couples and those who
just don't want children. Currently the average is nearer 1.8 so in
the long term the population of this country is going to shrink
fairly rapidly. The downside is the population is getting older.
It's a phenomenon that is being repeated across the world as people
get better educated and the religious ties are loosened.


I don't know what you mean by "long term" but the ONS project the
population of the UK continuing to increase through to 2043.



After the middle of the century as the offspring of the baby boomers
start to die out and the influence of effective contraception took
hold from the mid 1960s onward.


Thanks for calibrating "long term".

While you may of course be right I'll merely note that the statisticians
at Eurostat do not agree.Â* They project the UK population continuing to
increase (albeit more slowly) through to 2100.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/po...ta/main-tables



A quick look at the fertility table shows the rate in the UK varying
from a low of 1.27 in inner London to a high of 1.97 in outer London for
2017. The general trend is consistently falling across the country over
the 5 year period on the chart.

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.

On 15/12/2019 11:42, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 10:44, Robin wrote:
On 15/12/2019 10:25, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 09:19, Robin wrote:
On 14/12/2019 21:55, Graeme Wall wrote:

Actually the replacement rate is about 2.4 children per couple to
allow for infertility, , infant mortality, gay couples and those
who just don't want children. Currently the average is nearer 1.8
so in the long term the population of this country is going to
shrink fairly rapidly. The downside is the population is getting
older. It's a phenomenon that is being repeated across the world as
people get better educated and the religious ties are loosened.


I don't know what you mean by "long term" but the ONS project the
population of the UK continuing to increase through to 2043.



After the middle of the century as the offspring of the baby boomers
start to die out and the influence of effective contraception took
hold from the mid 1960s onward.


Thanks for calibrating "long term".

While you may of course be right I'll merely note that the
statisticians at Eurostat do not agree.Â* They project the UK
population continuing to increase (albeit more slowly) through to 2100.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/po...ta/main-tables



A quick look at the fertility table shows the rate in the UK varying
from a low of 1.27 in inner London to a high of 1.97 in outer London for
2017. The general trend is consistently falling across the country over
the 5 year period on the chart.


I'm unclear if you are saying Eurostat have made mistakes in their
projections of population growth continuing through to 2100. All I know
is that fertility is not the only factor.

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

On 15/12/2019 13:34, Robin wrote:
On 15/12/2019 11:42, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 10:44, Robin wrote:
On 15/12/2019 10:25, Graeme Wall wrote:
On 15/12/2019 09:19, Robin wrote:
On 14/12/2019 21:55, Graeme Wall wrote:

Actually the replacement rate is about 2.4 children per couple to
allow for infertility, , infant mortality, gay couples and those
who just don't want children. Currently the average is nearer 1.8
so in the long term the population of this country is going to
shrink fairly rapidly. The downside is the population is getting
older. It's a phenomenon that is being repeated across the world
as people get better educated and the religious ties are loosened.


I don't know what you mean by "long term" but the ONS project the
population of the UK continuing to increase through to 2043.



After the middle of the century as the offspring of the baby boomers
start to die out and the influence of effective contraception took
hold from the mid 1960s onward.


Thanks for calibrating "long term".

While you may of course be right I'll merely note that the
statisticians at Eurostat do not agree.Â* They project the UK
population continuing to increase (albeit more slowly) through to 2100.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/po...ta/main-tables



A quick look at the fertility table shows the rate in the UK varying
from a low of 1.27 in inner London to a high of 1.97 in outer London
for 2017. The general trend is consistently falling across the country
over the 5 year period on the chart.


I'm unclear if you are saying Eurostat have made mistakes in their
projections of population growth continuing through to 2100. All I know
is that fertility is not the only factor.


Just saying those figures are of the same order as the ones I derived
from the New Scientist report on population changes a few months back.
They will, inevitably, lead to a decline in the population in the long
term. Defining that long term is a bit woolly but I would think the
Eurostat projections are a mite pessimistic.

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.