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Mixed bag for transport schemes - Watford Junction Redevelopment& Croxley Link
Solario wrote:
wrote: wrote: burkey wrote: However, the Croxley Rail Link, a plan to extend the Metropolitan Line to Watford Junction, has yet to meet the appropriate conditions for approval. The DfT has said that it anticipates the scheme will be approved within the next ten years but that it will need close scrutiny in terms of value for money. It would take at least £50m to realise the proposed extension. (snip) If our beloved politicians cannot deal with a simple project like the Croxley Link, As I understand it, they have *dealt* with it, by declining it as it has yet to meet the appropriate conditions for approval. that gives enormous benefits for little outlay, Define 'enormous' and 'little' (£50m), and compare and contrast with other projects. Nothing is inexpensive these days. I refer you to Mr. Ford's references to "Boiling Frogs". All such projects are assessed for costs and benefits. Any idea what the CBA is for this project and why it doesn't meet the criteria? No, and I don't know the criterea these guys utilize. How does one quantify the benefits of reconnecting all Metroland to the main line? One of the main criteria used is probably time savings, converted to a monetary value. This will factor in time savings for existing travellers as well as benefits for new travellers and disbenefits for those who will no longer travel or will switch to less favourable modes. Other monetised benefits/disbenefits will be: - changes in road congestion - changes in fare revenues (for both LUL and local buses) - changes in operating costs - changes in indirect tax revenue (usually a loss if car drivers switch to the new public transport) - changes in number of accidents (usually important because it can have a large monetary magnitude) - changes in noise levels These will be measured against the capital costs of infrastructure and rolling stock as distributed over a set period, something like 50 years from opening. The output is the BCR (benefit-cost ratio) or NPV (net present value) figure, the former measuring how good value for money the scheme is, and the latter measuring the magnitude of the return on investment. However, there is an additional part of the assessment which deals with non-monetised benefits and disbenefits - to do with various environmental and social factors. Examples are impact on landscape/townscape, biodiversity, historic resources, water, journey ambience, greenhouse gas emissions, severance, access to transport, ease of modal interchange, and compatibility with land-use policy and other policies. Most of these are given a score (and are thus more subjective than the monetised benefits) except for greenhouse gas emissions which are quantified as CO2-equivalent tonnes. So although the first-glance BCR or NPV figure may not "sell" a project, the non-monetised factors will affect how the monetised value is treated. An example I've been told is that building a new airport in Hyde Park would have a big positive BCR (huge journey time savings!), but obviously it would never happen because it would receive a rather less impressive score for the non-monetised factors. Additionally, monetary values are usually calculated for several different options for a project, including a "do-nothing" scenario and some soft measures, and the values for the preferred option are compared against this (e.g. if the do-nothing scenario has a large negative NPV, e.g. -£50m, then the preferred project may be favourable even if its NPV is quite small, e.g. +£5m). Of course, I don't know how this applies to the Croxley Link unless someone can produce the summary table which such assessments are required to produce. (snip rest) -- Dave Arquati Imperial College, SW7 www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London |
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