On 24 Sep, 14:27, Paul Corfield wrote:

On Wed, 24 Sep 2008 05:26:20 -0700 (PDT), Mizter T
wrote:

Paul Corfield wrote:

(snip)

We are getting new trains, tarted up stations (ignoring ELLX which is on
a different scale), some signalling works and some limited segregation
Highbury - Camden Road. We've also got Oyster ticketing which is partly
integrated at the moment but obviously Overground is more to do with the
rail network that say buses or DLR. Much of the infrastructure work is
to try to accommodate ELLX reaching Highbury and to accommodate freight
not segregate it! We've also just had yet more cost cutting at Camden
Road which compromises the service offer and potentially service
quality.

What's the real story with the reduced works package at Camden Road?
Is it simply that there is an allocated pot of money for these works,
and after some more detailed surveying had been done TfL and Network
Rail realised that the remedial works to bring the rail bridges up to
the required standard was going to cost significantly more than
originally estimated? That certainly appears to be the public line
that TfL are taking, and it's not like the rationale is totally
unbelievable.

I am told the costs from Network Rail came in higher than expected.
Attempts to reduce the costs and preserve the scheme failed so therefore
scope got the chop instead.


Thanks. It is, as I thought likely, basically as simple as that. The
four bridges over roads do look to be in a pretty crummy condition it
must be said, and I suppose their location in a tightly packed urban
environment can only increase costs.


Or has the allocated pot of money shrunk, or indeed was the allocated
amount never set in stone and thus was somewhat flexible - i.e. have
costs literally been cut for these works? That would fit in with the
notion that Boris is cutting budgets, though I was under the half-
impression that the new Mayoral administration had agreed that TfL's
budget was not under any major threat? (Or were the planned works
deemed as not delivering enough "taxpayer value"?)

TfL's budget is under huge threat from all sorts of issues - Crossrail
and PPP being just two. There are huge reviews and reorganisations being
undertaken to reduce costs. These started prior to the Mayoral election
but the intended arrival of Mr Parker certainly added some "emphasis" to
the process. Even though he's not turning up you'll note the quote from
Mr Hendy in the fares increase press release about a review process
inside TfL to "release funds".


Yes, I was well aware of the enormous pressures on the budget from
Crossrail and Metronet (the former in particular). I think my comment
came more from the news that the 'Boris budget cut backs' that were
going to affect other parts of the GLA (various City Hall functions in
particular) were not being extended to TfL - i.e. TfL's budget was not
going to be cut - but this doesn't mean that there isn't the
possibility of cuts of all sorts across TfL to enable funds to be
diverted towards Crossrail and Metronet.

Interesting what you say about the cost reviews starting prior to the
new administration but actually thinking about it that makes perfect
sense. I missed any discussions that happened here at the time but I'm
very glad that the so-called 'Prince of Darkness' Mr Parker won't be
the one swinging the knife - his talk of how "my shareholders will be
the taxpayers of London" missed a rather crucial point I feel, which
is that said Londoners would also be "his" customers. (I've read some
speculation that Bob Crow scared him off!) Mr Parker's departure seems
to secure the position of Peter Hendy as Transport Commissioner, the
deal being that he gets to hold the knife instead - but if there is to
be surgery I'd far prefer him to be doing it. (The "release funds"
quote is an interesting bit of spin it must be said - AFAICS "generate
funds" is really what he's saying!)

Back to the reduced scope of the Camden Road works, I've read
elsewhere people decrying this as the first concrete (or rather rusty
bridge) example of the widely feared Boris cutbacks affecting
transport schemes, but I did feel like this was too simple an analysis
- given the money pressures elsewhere would the same course of action
(or inaction) happened under the custodianship of Livingstone I asked
myself, and obviously there's no definitive answer but I think it
quite possible. He was also a pragmatist, and whilst he may have been
persuasive when it came to getting cash out of central government I
don't think the Treasury is remotely in the mood for loosening the
purse strings right now.


If the problem is the former - i.e. that the money available simply
doesn't cover the proposed works - then of course that's a big shame,
and it's also a shame that TfL couldn't find the money elsewhere or
pursuade the DfT to rustle up some cash for them, though of course (a)
the new Mayor isn't going to wield anything like the same amount of
pursuasive influence with central government as his predecessor, and
(b) perhaps just as importantly budgets are being squeezed all across
central government and (to some extent) the wider public sector now,
so the money isn't there for the taking anyway.

I think there are massive pressures and risks on costs and the lack of a
Transport Strategy doesn't help set a direction or allow for persuasive
argument with government. ELLX2 is different as it eases the pain on a
government scheme and is advantageous in its own right.


ELLX2 would take the pressure off London Bridge at a very opportune
time - that of the Thameslink reconstruction - but the service that's
getting kicked out of London Bridge because there's not enough space,
the Victoria to LB South London Line service, is going to get a quasi-
replacement that will run from Victoria to Bellingham via Peckham Rye
(or at least that's the strong recommendation of the sarf lahndon
RUS). I just fear that the DfT might think that it has done its bit
with that and thus ignore calls for ELLX2.


Nonetheless I still can't help but feel that the Mayor should've put
in more of a fight to make the original scheme happen. Perhaps it's
part of some faustian bargain with the DfT whereby ELLX phase 2 gets
funded? (I wish!) Or is ELLX phase 2 going to hit the rocks as well? :-
(

I had half expected an announcement on this during the Labour Party
conference but perhaps they're waiting for all the conferences to be
over before making any announcement at all. This avoids triumphalism on
the part of Boris in "winning" a battle with the government over this
scheme. The last I read there was a £50m gap which is relatively peanuts
in terms of government budgets but the money that's been chucked around
for other reasons may be making it hard to fill the gap. If it doesn't
happen now I don't see it happening for at least 10 years.


Mwmbwls had already speculated that this might happen, and I have to
say that I thought it unlikely - as much as the Labour government
might wish to claim credit for it, Boris would be the one out there on
the photo-op next to Millwall's stadium or wherever (actually perhaps
more likely at Clapham Junction, people there are more likely to vote
Tory!) proclaiming the arrival of a brand new line - even if he didn't
publicly proclaim it as a 'Boris victory' then that's certainly how
his people would spin it and how parts of the media would report it.
(Of course the new SoS Transport could make Boris look awkward by
demanding they appear together at a joint announcement!)

I do hope it gets the go ahead - I'm encouraged by Ken's 'gaffe' on
the London Tonight news programme's Mayoral election special where he
said that the DfT had basically agreed to give it the go-ahead. I hope
that this was the case and remains the case, and the delay in publicly
announcing it is merely a bit of news management (don't give Boris any
easy wins during his first 100 days) rather than the result of some
rethink.

The idea of running straight through to constructing phase 2 after
phase 1 has been finished of course has a lot to be said for it. Phase
2 basically requires a grade separated junction at Silwood Triangle
(south of Surrey Quays), and it would make every bit of sense for this
to be built now whilst the line is shut, but I haven't heard of any
announcements to this effect yet. I hope its coming soon...