Cameron will just say "sorry Boris, we're asking everyone in the country
to make sacrifices and that includes the London Mayoralty and transport
in London." *Boris may think he has an argument against that but I think
he'll lose because Cameron's stance can be spun in a whole load of ways
that would put Boris in a very difficult position both in the country
and in the Tory Party. *Cameron's early actions within the party
indicate something of a dislike for dissention in the ranks and a desire
for control. *He has to do this in order to remain in power and to have
sort of basis for another term. *It will play very badly if he can't
keep his own party under control.

If Boris loses Crossrail, his overall record as mayor looks poor and I
think he'll struggle to be reelected. Losing control of London would
be embarrassing for Cameron, but more importantly he won't want an
angry Boris back in the House of Commons causing trouble--high level
politics will outweigh any financial considerations. I don't believe
Hammond's opinion will be important, this decision will be taken above
his pay grade.

"Paul Corfield" wrote in message

On Thu, 20 May 2010 11:33:42 -0700 (PDT), kev
wrote:

Cameron will just say "sorry Boris, we're asking everyone in the
country to make sacrifices and that includes the London Mayoralty
and transport in London." Boris may think he has an argument
against that but I think he'll lose because Cameron's stance can be
spun in a whole load of ways that would put Boris in a very
difficult position both in the country and in the Tory Party.
Cameron's early actions within the party indicate something of a
dislike for dissention in the ranks and a desire for control. He
has to do this in order to remain in power and to have sort of
basis for another term. It will play very badly if he can't keep
his own party under control.

If Boris loses Crossrail, his overall record as mayor looks poor and
I think he'll struggle to be reelected. Losing control of London
would be embarrassing for Cameron, but more importantly he won't
want an angry Boris back in the House of Commons causing
trouble--high level politics will outweigh any financial
considerations. I don't believe Hammond's opinion will be important,
this decision will be taken above his pay grade.

Well yes Crossrail is important to Boris given that it is the *only*
large scale public transport that remains in his programme! Much of
the rest is smaller scale stuff (comparatively) and the only true
Boris schemes are the New Bus for London and various cycle schemes.
These are deliberately designed to be deliverable by 2012 - that's
his choice but to me they count for very little.

There is other "fairy dust" sprinkled around in his strategy documents
but there's no money or commitment to get them from being words to
even a concept of a scheme never mind anything more substantial. I'd
be a bit kinder if there was some funding to progress Tramlink to
Crystal Palace or DLR to Dagenham or to Walthamstow or to extend the
Bakerloo Line southeastwards. These schemes may have merit but
without some analysis and option development they'll get nowhere and
no one will ever know if you should halt further development or else
progress the scheme.

The problem is whether £16bn of expenditure is worth spending to shut
Boris up and also whether that would be result. In my view it
wouldn't shut him up but hey I could be very wrong. I have my doubts
about this coalition but I really cannot see Mr Cameron agreeing to
toss Boris £16bn as some sort of political frippery. The real issue
is the extent to which the City wants Crossrail and how effectively
they have or will lobby the Tories to insist it is built - including
via Canary Wharf.

I wonder if this public spat is all just for show? Let's imagine that
Dave and George have already agreed with Boris that Crosrail will
proceed, perhaps with minor cost-cutting, but it helps Boris if he can
make this look like a major victory.

By claiming it's in mortal danger, and then successfully fighting off
the threat, he looks much stronger than if it just quietly proceeded to
plan. Dave can also look like a hero to Londoners by generously agreeing
to reinstate it. I can't imagine that the real negotiations are being
played out in public like this.

I'm sure Boris could cite some appropriate precedent from classical
Greece or ancient Rome.