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PT today
wrote:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100 Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun 2020, Recliner remarked: Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun 2020, remarked: given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the model needed a bit of tweaking. Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'. Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate. If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing, because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive. On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who died WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only measure the latter. As often mentioned, it's best to look at excess deaths, to avoid arguments about whether death certificates are consistent or accurate. The BBC web site has an interactive map that lets you compare the excess deaths per capita in any chosen area with the national average: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 In most of the country, the excess deaths are now running at a low rate, but I find that in some parts of the country that were hit hard and early, the excess deaths are now negative. In other words, the virus claimed the lives of some of the frail people who would have died in June a couple of months early. Ealing and Hounslow, boroughs adjacent to Heathrow, are examples where the current death rate is below their norm. But, to pick a purely random example, County Durham, still has a high CV-19 death rate, so excess deaths are still significant. |
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