2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes

If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.


Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart.


In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours.

At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a
bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the
two directions are separated by an island platform.

If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter.

[...]

The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart.


You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted
and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on
that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of
minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point
where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after
the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you
avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do.


I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound
Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a
westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later.
He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any
specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at
King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that
hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or
maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped
him.)

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.

Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart.

In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours.

At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a
bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the
two directions are separated by an island platform.

Thanks for clarifying, I have been saying Euston as shorthand for
Euston Square....




If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter.
[...]
The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart.

You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted
and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on
that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of
minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point
where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after
the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you
avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will
do.


I wasn't assuming these had any special significance. I was just
accepting the report that those were the trains blown up and working
back from there.

Given the KX setup it is sounding more and more likely the bombs were
just dropped on trains at KX and the perp walked. Even with a more
stringent scenario requiring hopping on and off trains it appears one
guy could have done it. Take out the shuttling and one guy definitely
could do it.

The problem with this is that dramatically decreases the likelihood of
finding the guy. If he is as bright as Kaczynski they may never find
him.
The Beltway Snipers were only found because someone eventually keyed in
to the fact their car kept showing up around shootings.

If it is a loner, one scenario might be for him to surface periodically
between now and the Olympics, blow up a few things and disappear. This
could go on for a long time.


--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

Ed Lake wrote:
Clive D. W. Feather wrote:

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes

If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.


Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart.


In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours.

At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a
bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the
two directions are separated by an island platform.

If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter.

[...]

The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart.


You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted
and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on
that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of
minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point
where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after
the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you
avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do.


I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound
Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a
westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later.
He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any
specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at
King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that
hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or
maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped
him.)

I was basically making the same assumption. I threw in the shuttling
between stations to see if the lone bomber idea fell apart. That
scenario strains credulity, but is clearly possible. If it really is
a lone bomber, I expect we will see him periodically. If he is doing
this based on experience, he probably has also scoped out the cameras
and knows how to avoid or confound them as well.


Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

Ed Lake wrote:

I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the
eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and
knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the
platform moments later.

Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be
anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted,
which is not uncommon.

He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by
any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what
happens at King's Cross.

Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in
practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift*
(elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly
train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up
the elevator") is an absurd assumption.
--
Richard J.
(to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address)

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

Richard - too true.

Anyone who lives in London knows that your regular tube journey - can
take 30mins to 45mins with no obvious problems (50% variance is not
uncommon). Trains are not that punctual - signal faults, flooding
person under the train are daily occurances. Esp Picaddily, circle and
central.

King's cross is packed at rush hour, and is quite a walk between the
circle and pica/victoria lines. Don't think you can plan this sort of
thing..



Richard J. wrote:
Ed Lake wrote:

I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the
eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and
knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the
platform moments later.

Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be
anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted,
which is not uncommon.

He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by
any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what
happens at King's Cross.

Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in
practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift*
(elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly
train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up
the elevator") is an absurd assumption.
--
Richard J.
(to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address)

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J."
wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the
eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and
knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the
platform moments later.

Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be
anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted,
which is not uncommon.

He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by
any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what
happens at King's Cross.

Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in
practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift*
(elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly
train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up
the elevator") is an absurd assumption.

This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were
placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an
Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea
what he's talking about.

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

In article ,
(Clive D. W. Feather) wrote:

At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a
bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross
the two directions are separated by an island platform.

King's Cross has the only island platform on that part of the Circle. This
is one reason why I suspect all the bombs were plants at King's Cross.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

In article , (Ed Lake)
wrote:

He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it
out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb
was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color
that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he
could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention.
And if he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit
with the last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got
on the wrong train by accident.

He couldn't have placed a bomb under any C stock or 73ts seat. Look at the
stocks. It can't be done. But there is plenty of space by doors where bags
would likely not be noticed.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

wrote:
Richard - too true.

Anyone who lives in London knows that your regular tube journey - can
take 30mins to 45mins with no obvious problems (50% variance is not
uncommon). Trains are not that punctual - signal faults, flooding
person under the train are daily occurances. Esp Picaddily, circle and
central.


30 minutes to 45 minutes from KX to Eustone Sq.? Really?

King's cross is packed at rush hour, and is quite a walk between the
circle and pica/victoria lines. Don't think you can plan this sort of
thing..


How long a walk is quite a walk... 3 minutes? 5 minutes? 10 minutes?



Richard J. wrote:
Ed Lake wrote:

I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the
eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and
knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the
platform moments later.

Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be
anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted,
which is not uncommon.

He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by
any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what
happens at King's Cross.

Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in
practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift*
(elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly
train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up
the elevator") is an absurd assumption.
--
Richard J.
(to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address)

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

asdf wrote:
On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J."
wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things
happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the
eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and
knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the
platform moments later.

Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be
anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted,
which is not uncommon.

He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound
Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by
any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what
happens at King's Cross.

Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in
practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift*
(elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly
train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up
the elevator") is an absurd assumption.

This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were
placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an
Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea
what he's talking about.

Actually I think you have people confused here. I'm the guy who
assumed that it was under a seat or out of the way. I made it clear
that was an assumption and posted it here because I don't ride the tube
and folks here actuallly work on it.

The point of the scenario was to determine if it was possible for one
person to physically get to all three trains during rush hour in a
tight enough window to explain the explosions. The smallest time
window I could come up with was about 12 minutes total elapsed time
assuming the last bomb was placed on the Piccadilly Line at KX between
8:49 and 8:50

I am assuming it is physically possible to go from KX to Euston Sq. and
back in 8 to 5 minutes. Is that not possible?

I am also assuming it is physically possible to get from the Circle
Line to the Piccadilly Line platform in 3 to 5 minutes. Is that not
possible?

If those numbers are possible, then you can't rule out one person doing
this. I am not saying this is what actually happened. But what is
clear is that two people could easily have done this.