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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
The trains affected were the following:
204 eastbound between Liverpool Street and Aldgate. 216 westbound at Edgware Road. 311 southbound between King's Cross St. Pancras and Russell Square. If one guy did all three bombings, then the Russell Street bomb would have been placed last at KX station. Assumption: The Circle Line bombs were placed under a seat while the perp rode the train for one stop before getting off. This would be least likely to cause suspicion. The Picadilly Line bomb was dropped by the front door and doesn't require the perp to stay on board. It doesn't travel far enough to matter if people get suspicious. Given the time from KX to Liverpool (8 min), and KX to Edgware (8 min) you can't have one guy plant both bombs even if he only rides between KX and Euston (2 min) because it would take at least 5 minutes for you to do the round trip between Euston and KX (ride 2 min to Euston wait 1 minute for a train and ride 2min to KX). Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216 left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first. Suggests: two guys traveling in opposite directions. The eastbound guy gets off at Farringdon and is available to catch the bus. The westbound guy gets off at Euston, turns around and heads back towards KX. He could easily have arrived there around 8:45. That means you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform. Questions: Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3 minutes at a brisk walk? If yes.... you don't need more than 2 guys. Ed Lake wrote: Ed Lake wrote: Ed Lake wrote: Evidence indicating that the London bombs were the work of a SINGLE individual seems to grow. Two bombs were on the Circle Line, one on an eastbound train going from King's Cross toward Liverpool Station, one on a westbound train going from King's Cross toward Edgeware Station, and one on a southbound train of the Picadilly line going from King's Cross toward Russell Square. It appears that after planting the three bombs at King's Cross, the bomber then exited King's Cross Station and got onto a southbound bus, where he left the final bomb under a seat in the nearly empty bag he'd used. He then got off. There were only 4 bombs, weighing a total of less than 40 pounds. That can easily be carried by a single person. The reports of unexploded bombs are being denied. Police found two suspicious packages, and they blew up at least one of them, but there's no evidence either package contained a bomb. At 8.51, a Circle Line train heading into Liverpool Street station, the huge complex which acts as the confluence for a number of underground lines as well as overground lines from north and east London, carrying commuters in and out of the City, was rocked by a huge explosion. Within a few minutes, at 8.56, the underground was rocked by a second blast, a few kilometres to the north-west, where the southbound Piccadilly Line sweeps in from north London. there was a third explosion, at 9.17am and several kilometres to the west, at Edgware Road station, this time on another Circle Line train heading west. Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?...ectID=10334959 Four bombs weighing a total of less than 10 pounds each, all coming from a central place, all detonated by TIMERS? That really smells of the work of a single individual. But I suppose plenty will find conspiracies somewhere in all this. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com The bus is going to be the key. Did he wait at King's Cross until the panic started before he boarded the bus? Or did he get on the bus immediately and it just took 40 minutes or so to get to the right spot? Either way, it seems he set the final bomb to go off when the bus was full of people coming out of the tube stations. It doesn't look like it would take very long for a bus to get from King's Cross to Russell Square. The culprit probably waited around King's Cross before getting on a bus. And he was probably one of the first people on the bus, since he'd want a nearly empty bus so no one would see when he put the bag under the seat. If this is true, based upon the times when various vehicles left King's Cross, an expert could probably tell where the individual was at almost every minute during the entire time period. If there are any surveillance cameras about, you could almost say he'd pass camera 123 at 8:42 a.m., camera 131 at 8:44 a.m., camera 419 at 9:15 a.m., etc. This is the most interesting crime I've seen since the anthrax attacks. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com I've done some further research, and it appears the culprit didn't wait around King's Cross after planting the bombs on the trains, he walked to Euston Station. It's less than a half mile away. The Number 30 bus that blew up was going from Euston to King's Cross. Here's the bus route and schedule for Number 30 bus: http://www.londonbusroutes.net/times/030.pdf At the time of the explosion, there'd be a bus about every 6 to 8 minutes going from Euston Station to King's Cross and another bus about every 10 minutes going in the other direction from King's Cross to Euston Station. The bomb was on the westbound bus going from Euston to King's Cross, but because of all the people coming out of the subways, it was diverted down Woburn Place to Tavistock where the bomb went off. It looks to me like the bomber expected the bus to be at King's Cross at the time the bomb went off. But it was diverted. He evidently expected people to be coming out of King's Cross Station because of the earlier bombs, and then to have another go off in front of them when they got to the surface. The more I research this, the more it seems like the work of one man - a very cunning man. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
|
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216 left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first. It doesn't work like that. Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive, then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on. They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have starting times and initial moves to get them into order. Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way. [Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.] That means you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform. Questions: Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3 minutes at a brisk walk? I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at the moment. The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough). -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216 left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first. It doesn't work like that. Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive, then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on. They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have starting times and initial moves to get them into order. Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way. [Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.] This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting with the 216: 8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay 8:40 get off at Euston 8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay 8:44 arrive KX and get off. 8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on. The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines. You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still have things work out more or less. So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two because that would dramatically improve the chances of success. Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform. That means you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform. Questions: Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3 minutes at a brisk walk? I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at the moment. The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough). -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
|
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Ed Lake wrote: wrote: Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216 left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first. It doesn't work like that. Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive, then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on. They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have starting times and initial moves to get them into order. Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way. [Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.] This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting with the 216: 8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay 8:40 get off at Euston 8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay 8:44 arrive KX and get off. 8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on. The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines. You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still have things work out more or less. So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two because that would dramatically improve the chances of success. Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a bomb is going to go off. The bomb will go off after you have left. Riding the train one stop is a good way not to draw attention to a package that is left under a seat. If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train? The first two will be on a train for about ten minutes and several stops. If they are unattended you don't want to draw attention to them because someone might decide to play hero and chuck it off the train. The last one can be a throw on because they won't have time to do anything about it. Also you want to be sure you can exit the station when all hell breaks lose. You don't want to get caught on a train when the system is shut down. If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In the scenario I laid out, you could actually have a 4 minute layover at Euston and still have time to get to the Picadilly Line platform. If you drop the Picadilly Line bomb at 10:50, that gives you another minute. So for a total of 12 minutes you have up to 3 minutes of slack time. Picking the Picadilly Line in this scenario actually builds in additional buffers because you can pick EITHER trains going westward or eastward. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly Line bomb. The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. According to people who ride the tube, you could probably get to the platform in 3 minutes without running. The front of the car (the southernmost end of the platform) is right near the bottom of the escalator. I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a second person? A second person buys you a quite a few benefits. Lookout, failsafe, distraction if needed, someone to run interference, moral support. To my thinking the difference between one or two is not terribly significant because in either case you come back to .... it could be anyone not just jihadists. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform. That means you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform. Questions: Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3 minutes at a brisk walk? I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at the moment. The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough). -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Peter Vos wrote:
Ed Lake wrote: wrote: Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216 left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first. It doesn't work like that. Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive, then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on. They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have starting times and initial moves to get them into order. Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way. [Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.] This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting with the 216: 8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay 8:40 get off at Euston 8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay 8:44 arrive KX and get off. 8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on. The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines. You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still have things work out more or less. So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two because that would dramatically improve the chances of success. Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a bomb is going to go off. The bomb will go off after you have left. Riding the train one stop is a good way not to draw attention to a package that is left under a seat. If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train? The first two will be on a train for about ten minutes and several stops. If they are unattended you don't want to draw attention to them because someone might decide to play hero and chuck it off the train. The last one can be a throw on because they won't have time to do anything about it. Also you want to be sure you can exit the station when all hell breaks lose. You don't want to get caught on a train when the system is shut down. If someone had thrown a bomb onto a train just as the doors were closing, I think we'd have heard about that. The place would have been in a panic long BEFORE the bomb exploded. And I think there are ways to stop the train in an emergency. If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In the scenario I laid out, you could actually have a 4 minute layover at Euston and still have time to get to the Picadilly Line platform. If you drop the Picadilly Line bomb at 10:50, that gives you another minute. So for a total of 12 minutes you have up to 3 minutes of slack time. Picking the Picadilly Line in this scenario actually builds in additional buffers because you can pick EITHER trains going westward or eastward. Maybe, but I just don't see the culprit getting on and STAYING on any train after planting the first bomb. The objective after planting the first bomb would be to quickly plant the second and start working your way to the surface, planting the third on the way up. You do NOT go somewhere else and then RETURN to a place where you've been before. To me this all seems to indicate some person who had travelled to King's Cross hundreds of times and planned the steps out long before he actually committed the crime. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly Line bomb. The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. According to people who ride the tube, you could probably get to the platform in 3 minutes without running. The front of the car (the southernmost end of the platform) is right near the bottom of the escalator. Yes, I saw that posting. It's further evidence that the crime COULD HAVE been done by one person. He put the Picadilly Line bomb on the train on his way toward the surface. He simply got off the escalator, put the bomb on the train, then left and got back on the escalator again to head to the surface. He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention. And if he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit with the last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got on the wrong train by accident. I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a second person? A second person buys you a quite a few benefits. Lookout, failsafe, distraction if needed, someone to run interference, moral support. To my thinking the difference between one or two is not terribly significant because in either case you come back to .... it could be anyone not just jihadists. A second person also buys you a lot of risks. There was no need for lookouts, there was no report of distractions, there was no apparent need to run interference, and you can never fully trust anyone else involved in a crime, so moral support isn't as important as keeping the secret. And the only good way to keep a secret is to have it known by only one person. I agree that it could be "anyone not just jihadists". That's what first intrigued me about all this. I saw TV reports which said that area of London has a large Muslim population. If true, that can be viewed in two ways: the culprit was a Muslim from the area OR the culprit knew the area had a large Muslim population and knew they would get the blame. I don't want to speculate along those lines, but I'm certainly not discounting any possibility. That's why I think it's important that the police consider the idea that this could be the work of one person. If it was, you can literally compute where he was at almost every moment. If it is determined that - because of the times the trains arrived or departed - it could not possibly have been done by one person, THEN you can start looking at how it could have been done by two people. If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person, then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform. That means you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform. Questions: Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3 minutes at a brisk walk? I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at the moment. The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough). -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Ed Lake wrote: If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person, then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else. You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one occasion. I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Peter Vos wrote:
Ed Lake wrote: If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person, then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else. You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one occasion. I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested. Peter, I'm not locked into a one man theory. I just feel that IF it could have been done by one person, then it almost certainly WAS done by one person and that needs to be checked out as soon as possible. AND, if it was done by one person, then knowing the times of arrivals of the various trains would tell you where the culprit was at almost every moment he was inside King's Cross Station! That means you can find him on the surveillance camera tapes going from point A to point B to point C. If you have more than one person involved, then finding the culprit on surveillance tapes gets vastly more complicated. So, I would have people verify that it was not done by a single person before discounting that idea. That's all I'm saying. The objective is to get the guy - regardless of whether he's al Qaeda, IRA, an anti-G8 anarchist or just some lone nut on a crazy mission. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped him.) Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. Thanks for clarifying, I have been saying Euston as shorthand for Euston Square.... If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I wasn't assuming these had any special significance. I was just accepting the report that those were the trains blown up and working back from there. Given the KX setup it is sounding more and more likely the bombs were just dropped on trains at KX and the perp walked. Even with a more stringent scenario requiring hopping on and off trains it appears one guy could have done it. Take out the shuttling and one guy definitely could do it. The problem with this is that dramatically decreases the likelihood of finding the guy. If he is as bright as Kaczynski they may never find him. The Beltway Snipers were only found because someone eventually keyed in to the fact their car kept showing up around shootings. If it is a loner, one scenario might be for him to surface periodically between now and the Olympics, blow up a few things and disappear. This could go on for a long time. -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Ed Lake wrote: Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped him.) I was basically making the same assumption. I threw in the shuttling between stations to see if the lone bomber idea fell apart. That scenario strains credulity, but is clearly possible. If it really is a lone bomber, I expect we will see him periodically. If he is doing this based on experience, he probably has also scoped out the cameras and knows how to avoid or confound them as well. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Ed Lake wrote:
I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. -- Richard J. (to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address) |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Richard - too true.
Anyone who lives in London knows that your regular tube journey - can take 30mins to 45mins with no obvious problems (50% variance is not uncommon). Trains are not that punctual - signal faults, flooding person under the train are daily occurances. Esp Picaddily, circle and central. King's cross is packed at rush hour, and is quite a walk between the circle and pica/victoria lines. Don't think you can plan this sort of thing.. Richard J. wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. -- Richard J. (to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address) |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J."
wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea what he's talking about. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
asdf wrote: On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J." wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea what he's talking about. Actually I think you have people confused here. I'm the guy who assumed that it was under a seat or out of the way. I made it clear that was an assumption and posted it here because I don't ride the tube and folks here actuallly work on it. The point of the scenario was to determine if it was possible for one person to physically get to all three trains during rush hour in a tight enough window to explain the explosions. The smallest time window I could come up with was about 12 minutes total elapsed time assuming the last bomb was placed on the Piccadilly Line at KX between 8:49 and 8:50 I am assuming it is physically possible to go from KX to Euston Sq. and back in 8 to 5 minutes. Is that not possible? I am also assuming it is physically possible to get from the Circle Line to the Piccadilly Line platform in 3 to 5 minutes. Is that not possible? If those numbers are possible, then you can't rule out one person doing this. I am not saying this is what actually happened. But what is clear is that two people could easily have done this. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In message , at 11:39:30 on Mon, 11 Jul
2005, Ed Lake remarked: If the bomb was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention. Except the trains don't have an "under the seat", in that sense. Some of the seats have cushions which can be lifted up, but you couldn't do that without attracting *lots* of attention (and many, perhaps not all) are fixed in place with cable-ties as part of a years-old security precaution. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 11:39:30 on Mon, 11 Jul 2005, Ed Lake remarked: If the bomb was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention. Except the trains don't have an "under the seat", in that sense. Some of the seats have cushions which can be lifted up, but you couldn't do that without attracting *lots* of attention (and many, perhaps not all) are fixed in place with cable-ties as part of a years-old security precaution. -- Roland Perry I saw a post saying the KX stop is the only stop on the Circle Line where trains in both directions are separated by an central island platform. All (most?) of the other stops have platforms on the opposite side of the train. That means the doors that open at KX are not used for the other stops. This might make it possible for someone in a crowd to leave a smallish package by the doors that open at KX and no one would notice until things had thinned out significantly. The question I have is how far would you have to travel in either direction from KX before the doors that open at KX would be used again? Would you get as far as Edgware and Liverpool? Were the blasts on the 204 and 216 on the correct side (KX platform side)? If so, then dropping the package near the door while the train was at KX might be feasible without attracting attention. That would obviate any "babysitting" and means the perp never has to leave KX. I was also wondering .... how often at KX during rush hour do you see Circle Line trains in both directions at the station at the same time or nearly the same time? Is it something relatively common? If it is then waiting for such an occurance to start the process would minimize the time planting the first two bombs and gives you as much as 10 minutes before you have to be at the Picadilly Line. If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
No!
what I meant to say was that on a journey that can take 30mins, it can take 45 mins; Without obvious problems (which there are many daily). When there are problems it can get to an hour. Its not an exact science, stations get packed they sometimes stop you actually getting into the station/platform. Of course Euston Sq is very close walkable - but its not uncoomon esp on the circle line to get stuck in a tunnel. Also no space under seats - only by removing cushions and no rubbish bins - the IRA saw to that. Not disputing one man could have done it, but I don't think he had preplanned trains - just the lines. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
I completely agree with you, it was planned by lines not specific
trains. The configuration of the KX stop suggests that he may have left the bombs by the doors that opened on the KX platform because it is the doors on the OPPOSITE side that open for other stations. That makes it even more likely a one man job. Basically you plant the two bombs on the Circle Line with anywhere from 6 to 10 minutes left over to get to the Piccadilly Line platform. What I'm wondering is how commonly do trains going in opposite directions show up at about the same time on the Circle Line platform at KX? The reason I ask is I could see this sort of scenario: Get to Circle Line around 8:00 and wait until you have two trains going in opposite direction arriving at the platform close in time. For example, when one is in the station while another is approaching. That is the pair you pick. The reason being it will give you the most time (8 to 10 minutes) to get to the Piccadilly Line. There you simply hit whichever train shows up first. You don't hang around long enough to hit trains going in both directions on that line because there was no way you could do that and keep the explosions more or less synchronized. This cuts out all the shuttling back and forth and makes it real easy for one man to do it. It has an added advantage: If you wait to start the sequence when you have two trains in hand, even if the Piccadilly Line is out of service you will be guaranteed a double hit. The short delay on the Russell St. bomb could reflect a longer wait than anticipated for a target train or it could have been set shorter. I'm inclined to believe the timers were all set at the same time and the last train simply took a bit longer to arrive than expected. The alternative (you set and drop, set and drop, set and drop....) would require a separate countdown timer to keep track of elapsed time and would be too confusing for most people, especially working under a tight schedule with no room for mistakes. This scenario suggests they should be looking for a male weighing 70 to 80 kg (about 150 to 180 lb) who is in good physical condition, carrying a backpack traveling from the Circle line platform between 8:35 and 8:45 who takes the escalator to Piccadilly then quickly takes the escalator to the surface. yitzak wrote: No! what I meant to say was that on a journey that can take 30mins, it can take 45 mins; Without obvious problems (which there are many daily). When there are problems it can get to an hour. Its not an exact science, stations get packed they sometimes stop you actually getting into the station/platform. Of course Euston Sq is very close walkable - but its not uncoomon esp on the circle line to get stuck in a tunnel. Also no space under seats - only by removing cushions and no rubbish bins - the IRA saw to that. Not disputing one man could have done it, but I don't think he had preplanned trains - just the lines. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Peter Vos wrote:
If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. Based on reports that each device contained about 10 lbs[*] of explosive, a lone bomber would have started off with 40 lbs (18 kg) of weight on their back. Not impossible, but I'd have thought that would be an unwieldy weight of luggage to deal with - if you're trying not to draw attention to yourself leaving bits of it behind - and you want to move swiftly on to the next target. [*] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_...#Investigation |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
yitzak wrote: No! what I meant to say was that on a journey that can take 30mins, it can take 45 mins; Without obvious problems (which there are many daily). When there are problems it can get to an hour. Its not an exact science, stations get packed they sometimes stop you actually getting into the station/platform. Of course Euston Sq is very close walkable - but its not uncoomon esp on the circle line to get stuck in a tunnel. Also no space under seats - only by removing cushions and no rubbish bins - the IRA saw to that. Not disputing one man could have done it, but I don't think he had preplanned trains - just the lines. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
fatherivy wrote: Peter Vos wrote: If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. Based on reports that each device contained about 10 lbs[*] of explosive, a lone bomber would have started off with 40 lbs (18 kg) of weight on their back. Not impossible, but I'd have thought that would be an unwieldy weight of luggage to deal with - if you're trying not to draw attention to yourself leaving bits of it behind - and you want to move swiftly on to the next target. Boy Scout backpacking guidelines stipulate 25% to 30% of your weight for heavy duty hikes. That means you have a guy in good physical shape weighing 70 to 90 kg (about 150 to 200 lb). If you are planting two on Circle Line, then you already have one out when the first train arrives. Grab the second and drop that soon after. Now you are travelling towards Piccadilly with no more than 30 lbs.... a relatively small woman could handle that with no problem. [*] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_...#Investigation |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In message .com, at
04:48:19 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, Peter Vos remarked: I saw a post saying the KX stop is the only stop on the Circle Line where trains in both directions are separated by an central island platform. All (most?) of the other stops have platforms on the opposite side of the train. The only one on that section of the line. That means the doors that open at KX are not used for the other stops. This might make it possible for someone in a crowd to leave a smallish package by the doors that open at KX and no one would notice until things had thinned out significantly. That is certainly a possibility. The question I have is how far would you have to travel in either direction from KX before the doors that open at KX would be used again? Would you get as far as Edgware and Liverpool? In the UK we tend not abbreviate places like that. Edgware is a suburb in north London, and Liverpool a big city halfway to Scotland. You would definitely get as far as Liverpool St, however Edgware Road also has island platforms, bit I cannot from memory tell you if a Circle Line train might open the righthand doors there. It wouldn't have done so earlier in the trip from Kings Cross. Were the blasts on the 204 and 216 on the correct side (KX platform side)? I have seen no reports that would either confirm or deny the theory. If so, then dropping the package near the door while the train was at KX might be feasible without attracting attention. That would obviate any "babysitting" and means the perp never has to leave KX. I was also wondering .... how often at KX during rush hour do you see Circle Line trains in both directions at the station at the same time or nearly the same time? If there's clockwise one circle line train every 10 minutes (you'd have to check what the interval actually is) and they are stopped at the station for 30 seconds (again, check) then you'd have a 1 in 20 chance that at any instant there was such a train stopped at the station. If you start the observation when an anticlockwise circle line train enters the station, and end it when it leaves, then it doesn't alter the probability very much. This assumes there's no particular timetable, adhered to, which might mean that there were always, or never, two circle line trains on either side of the island. (The island is also very wide, with connecting passages linking two running tunnels, rather than being a narrow "open air" island; so you don't tend to see trains on both sides at once unless you stand at the very eastern end.) Is it something relatively common? If it is then waiting for such an occurance to start the process would minimize the time planting the first two bombs and gives you as much as 10 minutes before you have to be at the Picadilly Line. I would expect it to be pretty random. You might find the two trains there, or you might easily have to wait 150% of the published interval. Similarly, the trip to the Piccadilly line and the wait there can be very unpredictable because of crowds, non-operational escalators, and earlier problems with the Piccadilly line which have been mentioned elsewhere. You might easily get to the Piccadilly line platform and find no trains at all! If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. If the scheme you are suggesting was what happened, then the people were lucky to get the package on board the Piccadilly train when they did - only perhaps 45 seconds before it detonated. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Roland Perry wrote: In message .com, at 04:48:19 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, Peter Vos remarked: I saw a post saying the KX stop is the only stop on the Circle Line where trains in both directions are separated by an central island platform. All (most?) of the other stops have platforms on the opposite side of the train. The only one on that section of the line. That means the doors that open at KX are not used for the other stops. This might make it possible for someone in a crowd to leave a smallish package by the doors that open at KX and no one would notice until things had thinned out significantly. That is certainly a possibility. The question I have is how far would you have to travel in either direction from KX before the doors that open at KX would be used again? Would you get as far as Edgware and Liverpool? In the UK we tend not abbreviate places like that. Edgware is a suburb in north London, and Liverpool a big city halfway to Scotland. You would definitely get as far as Liverpool St, however Edgware Road also has island platforms, bit I cannot from memory tell you if a Circle Line train might open the righthand doors there. It wouldn't have done so earlier in the trip from Kings Cross. Were the blasts on the 204 and 216 on the correct side (KX platform side)? I have seen no reports that would either confirm or deny the theory. If so, then dropping the package near the door while the train was at KX might be feasible without attracting attention. That would obviate any "babysitting" and means the perp never has to leave KX. I was also wondering .... how often at KX during rush hour do you see Circle Line trains in both directions at the station at the same time or nearly the same time? If there's clockwise one circle line train every 10 minutes (you'd have to check what the interval actually is) and they are stopped at the station for 30 seconds (again, check) then you'd have a 1 in 20 chance that at any instant there was such a train stopped at the station. If you start the observation when an anticlockwise circle line train enters the station, and end it when it leaves, then it doesn't alter the probability very much. Supposedly it is every 2 to 4 minutes at that time of day. There is a schedule, but the important point is the gap between trains. Assuming 30 seconds in the station you might actually have a 1 in 4 chance of that happening. I'm not suggesting the trains have to both be stopped at the same time, merely one in the station when the other is approaching. If they were both stopped you might not have time to plant bomb one, cross the platform and plant bomb two before the doors closed. This assumes there's no particular timetable, adhered to, which might There is a timetable, but the more critical thing is the spacing out of cars. mean that there were always, or never, two circle line trains on either side of the island. (The island is also very wide, with connecting passages linking two running tunnels, rather than being a narrow "open air" island; so you don't tend to see trains on both sides at once unless you stand at the very eastern end.) The first two bombs were in the middle of the trains (3rd and 2nd car) so I doubt anyone was hanging out at the end of the platform. Is it something relatively common? If it is then waiting for such an occurance to start the process would minimize the time planting the first two bombs and gives you as much as 10 minutes before you have to be at the Picadilly Line. I would expect it to be pretty random. You might find the two trains there, or you might easily have to wait 150% of the published interval. I agree, that would be why I suggest showing up around 8:30 or so and waiting. If you have trains every 4 minutes and a 1 in 5 chance of this happening, you will certainly catch a break before 9:00 Similarly, the trip to the Piccadilly line and the wait there can be very unpredictable because of crowds, non-operational escalators, and earlier problems with the Piccadilly line which have been mentioned elsewhere. You might easily get to the Piccadilly line platform and find no trains at all! That's why I was budgeting as much time as possible by having the first two trains as close together in time as possible. If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. If the scheme you are suggesting was what happened, then the people were lucky to get the package on board the Piccadilly train when they did - only perhaps 45 seconds before it detonated. That is true, and suggests they were flying off the escalator to get to the train before it left. It also suggests some serious nerve to be rushing for a train with a ticking time bomb. This suggests someone with demolition experience (probably former military) and maybe even combat experience. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Richard J. wrote:
Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. It doesn't matter if it was moments or minutes. Minutes is better. He probably took the second bomb out of the bag after getting off the first Circle Line train and before getting on the second Circle Line train. And he may have needed to set it or activate it. If he was quickly getting on and off the second train, he wouldn't have time to fiddle with the bomb while on the train. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. Sorry, I meant escalator not elevator. It was a typo. The front end of the Picadilly train is near the escalator and the bomb was planted on the front end of the Picadilly train. I'd read that the Circle Line is in the deepest tunnel, so I assumed that the Circle Line passed UNDER the Picadilly Line at King's Cross. If that's not true, let me know. The bomb on the Picadilly Line exploded closest to King's Cross, which probably means it was the last bomb placed on the trains. So, did the bomber go down a level to plant the third bomb and then go back up to the surface? It doesn't change anything, but it might be seen as another fact which seems to verify that the bomber ARRIVED at King's Cross on the eastbound Cirlce Line train. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
asdf wrote:
On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J." wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea what he's talking about. I've ridden the London Underground many times, but the last time was over 15 years ago. If you can't put bombs under seats, then where was it? It had to be placed somewhere. It was NOT held by a suicide bomber. Someone said there is a parcel bin near the door. If the seats fold up when not in use, that doesn't prevent someone from putting a bomb on the floor beneath it. It just means the bomb will be visible (perhaps looking like a rolled up newspaper, a box or a paper bag) when the seat is up, and the seat wouldn't be up for very long on a crowded train. Ed |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Peter Vos wrote:
I completely agree with you, it was planned by lines not specific trains. The configuration of the KX stop suggests that he may have left the bombs by the doors that opened on the KX platform because it is the doors on the OPPOSITE side that open for other stations. That makes it even more likely a one man job. Basically you plant the two bombs on the Circle Line with anywhere from 6 to 10 minutes left over to get to the Piccadilly Line platform. What I'm wondering is how commonly do trains going in opposite directions show up at about the same time on the Circle Line platform at KX? The reason I ask is I could see this sort of scenario: Get to Circle Line around 8:00 and wait until you have two trains going in opposite direction arriving at the platform close in time. For example, when one is in the station while another is approaching. That is the pair you pick. The reason being it will give you the most time (8 to 10 minutes) to get to the Piccadilly Line. There you simply hit whichever train shows up first. You don't hang around long enough to hit trains going in both directions on that line because there was no way you could do that and keep the explosions more or less synchronized. This cuts out all the shuttling back and forth and makes it real easy for one man to do it. It has an added advantage: If you wait to start the sequence when you have two trains in hand, even if the Piccadilly Line is out of service you will be guaranteed a double hit. The short delay on the Russell St. bomb could reflect a longer wait than anticipated for a target train or it could have been set shorter. I'm inclined to believe the timers were all set at the same time and the last train simply took a bit longer to arrive than expected. The alternative (you set and drop, set and drop, set and drop....) would require a separate countdown timer to keep track of elapsed time and would be too confusing for most people, especially working under a tight schedule with no room for mistakes. This scenario suggests they should be looking for a male weighing 70 to 80 kg (about 150 to 180 lb) who is in good physical condition, carrying a backpack traveling from the Circle line platform between 8:35 and 8:45 who takes the escalator to Piccadilly then quickly takes the escalator to the surface. Agreed! And because he didn't have time to unpack a bomb while ON the second Circle Line train or ON the Picadilly train before he had to get off again, he probably took the bomb out of the bag while moving between trains. That would make it easier to spot him on surveillance tapes. The bomb wouldn't LOOK like a bomb, of course. Ed yitzak wrote: No! what I meant to say was that on a journey that can take 30mins, it can take 45 mins; Without obvious problems (which there are many daily). When there are problems it can get to an hour. Its not an exact science, stations get packed they sometimes stop you actually getting into the station/platform. Of course Euston Sq is very close walkable - but its not uncoomon esp on the circle line to get stuck in a tunnel. Also no space under seats - only by removing cushions and no rubbish bins - the IRA saw to that. Not disputing one man could have done it, but I don't think he had preplanned trains - just the lines. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
fatherivy wrote:
Peter Vos wrote: If all that is true, then you really only need one person because you can do everything in a walk. Based on reports that each device contained about 10 lbs[*] of explosive, a lone bomber would have started off with 40 lbs (18 kg) of weight on their back. Not impossible, but I'd have thought that would be an unwieldy weight of luggage to deal with - if you're trying not to draw attention to yourself leaving bits of it behind - and you want to move swiftly on to the next target. Actually, it isn't that bad. He was only carrying 40 pounds when he got on the first Circle Line train. He left 10 pounds there and only had to carry the 30 pounds of explosive a few yards to the second Circle Line Train. Then he only had to carry 20 pounds to the Picadilly Line platform. Then he only had to carry 10 pounds on this walk or ride to Euston (Square?) Station to place the bag with the final bomb on the upper deck of the bus heading back to King's Cross. Ed |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In message , at 09:42:55 on Tue, 12 Jul
2005, Ed Lake remarked: I'd read that the Circle Line is in the deepest tunnel, so I assumed that the Circle Line passed UNDER the Picadilly Line at King's Cross. If that's not true, let me know. The Circle line is the *least* deep. And to all intents and purposes it's a separate station, especially during the current building works in the booking hall. The bomb on the Picadilly Line exploded closest to King's Cross, which probably means it was the last bomb placed on the trains. More than "probably". Absolutely certainly - *if* they were all put on board at KX just prior to those three trains making their final journey through the station. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In message , at 09:49:01 on Tue, 12 Jul
2005, Ed Lake remarked: I've ridden the London Underground many times, but the last time was over 15 years ago. If you can't put bombs under seats, then where was it? It had to be placed somewhere. On the floor, probably in the vestibule by the doors. It was NOT held by a suicide bomber. Someone said there is a parcel bin near the door. Not a bin. But some trains have a larger than normal vestibule (imagine some of the seats being missing) so people can transport large bags. If the seats fold up when not in use, The folding seats are so that the "extra big luggage vestibule" areas can be used for seating if there are no bags present, and if the train is sufficiently uncrowded that there aren't three or four people standing in the space the seated passenger would require. that doesn't prevent someone from putting a bomb on the floor beneath it. They spring back up violently, the moment you stop sitting on them. It just means the bomb will be visible (perhaps looking like a rolled up newspaper, a box or a paper bag) when the seat is up, and the seat wouldn't be up for very long on a crowded train. It would, because people would use the space to "*stand* in, on a crowded train. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
In message , at 10:05:24 on Tue, 12 Jul
2005, Ed Lake remarked: Then he only had to carry 10 pounds on this walk or ride to Euston (Square?) Station to place the bag with the final bomb on the upper deck of the bus heading back to King's Cross. The bus was headed the other way, and there's a 45 minute gap. Why would he want to go back to Euston (Sq) having left the last bomb on the Piccadilly, anyway? That means he was retracing his steps to the scene of the earlier crime (the planting of the two Circle Line bombs). If he wanted to plant a bomb on a bus there are plenty of them passing right outside Kings Cross. But that still doesn't explain the 45 minutes. -- Roland Perry |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 10:05:24 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, Ed Lake remarked: Then he only had to carry 10 pounds on this walk or ride to Euston (Square?) Station to place the bag with the final bomb on the upper deck of the bus heading back to King's Cross. The bus was headed the other way, and there's a 45 minute gap. Why would he want to go back to Euston (Sq) having left the last bomb on the Piccadilly, anyway? That means he was retracing his steps to the scene of the earlier crime (the planting of the two Circle Line bombs). If he wanted to plant a bomb on a bus there are plenty of them passing right outside Kings Cross. But that still doesn't explain the 45 minutes. -- Roland Perry The theory I heard was he picked that bus because it would arrive at KXSP and go off while people were exiting the station. However, the bus was detoured so it went off on a side street. |
2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
Roland Perry wrote: In message .com, at 07:31:16 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, remarked: Supposedly it is every 2 to 4 minutes at that time of day. On the Circle, I doubt it. Or did the question actually refer to any kind of train on the line? There is a schedule, but the important point is the gap between trains. Assuming 30 seconds in the station you might actually have a 1 in 4 chance of that happening. I'm not suggesting the trains have to both be stopped at the same time, merely one in the station when the other is approaching. When asking questions about things like this it's important to be precise! If they were both stopped you might not have time to plant bomb one, cross the platform and plant bomb two before the doors closed. So perhaps the wrong question was asked? If the question was "how long before any train leaves in the opposite direction" then 2-3 minutes would be a sensible answer. The first two bombs were in the middle of the trains (3rd and 2nd car) so I doubt anyone was hanging out at the end of the platform. Which cars exactly? If it was (say) 3rd and 5th [or 2nd and 6th], then that would suggest the same position on the platform. according to BBC eastbound was 2nd car and westbound was also 2nd car, although the police said floor of 3rd car. Is it something relatively common? If it is then waiting for such an occurance to start the process would minimize the time planting the first two bombs and gives you as much as 10 minutes before you have to be at the Picadilly Line. I would expect it to be pretty random. You might find the two trains there, or you might easily have to wait 150% of the published interval. I agree, that would be why I suggest showing up around 8:30 or so and waiting. If you have trains every 4 minutes and a 1 in 5 chance of this happening, I think we have pretty much established that the original question was wrong. you will certainly catch a break before 9:00 And will have blown yourself up by 8.51 ? (If all the bombs had fuses preset to that time). I thought we were talking statistically here. If you have 5 to 7 trains passing in a given direction over the course of half an hour and a 1 in 5 chance that you will have trains in opposite directions converging on the platform, then at SOME POINT during the half hour you are virtually guaranteed of this happening at least once. Given the time of detonation and the relative distances from KXSP, it looks like that convergence would have to occur around 8:38 to 8:40 -- Roland Perry |
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