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#2
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of 2012
Yeah the problem with a Bakerloo extension is that it would abstract
revenue from buses and trains in the area so the sums dont stack up as well as the (mainly) green/brownfield DLR which generates completley new journeys with little abstraction from other public transport. (Only exception being the line to North woolwich which will replace NR line but I guess serving the airport tipped the balance here) However the traffic along the Walworth road is now so bad for buses these days, I think if the sums were run again adding in the congestion reduction benefits we would see a better outcome. |
#3
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of2012
kytelly wrote:
Yeah the problem with a Bakerloo extension is that it would abstract revenue from buses and trains in the area so the sums dont stack up as well as the (mainly) green/brownfield DLR which generates completley new journeys with little abstraction from other public transport. (Only exception being the line to North woolwich which will replace NR line but I guess serving the airport tipped the balance here) However the traffic along the Walworth road is now so bad for buses these days, I think if the sums were run again adding in the congestion reduction benefits we would see a better outcome. I'm pretty sure that if they've carried out even a fairly simple cost-benefit analysis, they'll have included congestion reduction benefits for car and bus users, as well as abstraction of bus revenue. It may be that the BCR is pretty good - but probably just that other ones will be better. Going back to bus revenue, although it will abstract bus revenue from journeys which would have otherwise been made by bus and tube, journeys that transfer from bus-only to tube-only will result in a net increase in TfL revenue (because Tube fares are higher). In any case, I'm sure that will all be included in the calculations. Another factor is that congestion reduction won't just apply to road journey times - there's something to be said for reducing passenger congestion on trains from places like Denmark Hill (although to be honest I don't know how busy those trains are). On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to the City. -- Dave Arquati Imperial College, SW7 www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London |
#4
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of 2012
Dave Arquati wrote:
On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to the City. It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the Bakerloo Line. As for the DLR Dagenham branch, it makes sense to build it because it provides direct one-change access to and from Docklands from Essex. People living in Beckton can now commute to Shoeburyness, and people living in Dagenham have more access to Canary Wharf. Everybody wins, especially the District Line. |
#5
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of 2012
TheOneKEA wrote: Dave Arquati wrote: On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to the City. It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the Bakerloo Line. It's one of those situations where "cost/benefit" simply means "cost". The East London Line is being extended south simply because it's already there with relatively little work, the lines already almost connected etc. But not because people in Lewisham and South want to go to Dalston. In fact a Bakerloo Line extended three miles to Lewisham or beyond would be very very useful for getting from the south east to Oxford Street and Paddington, at Oyster prices, without inconvenient interchanges, but also expensive to build. For anyone trying to get from the south east to the West End or Paddington, buses along the Old Kent Road or Peckham Road are not a realistic alternative to NR for that kind of journey and would not be greatly affected. There wouldn't be any more Bakerloo overcrowding from Elephant than there already is from Charing Cross. As for the DLR Dagenham branch, it makes sense to build it because it provides direct one-change access to and from Docklands from Essex. People living in Beckton can now commute to Shoeburyness, and people living in Dagenham have more access to Canary Wharf. Everybody wins, especially the District Line. |
#6
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of2012
MIG wrote:
TheOneKEA wrote: Dave Arquati wrote: On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to the City. It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the Bakerloo Line. It's one of those situations where "cost/benefit" simply means "cost". The East London Line is being extended south simply because it's already there with relatively little work, the lines already almost connected etc. But not because people in Lewisham and South want to go to Dalston. In fact a Bakerloo Line extended three miles to Lewisham or beyond would be very very useful for getting from the south east to Oxford Street and Paddington, at Oyster prices, without inconvenient interchanges, but also expensive to build. For anyone trying to get from the south east to the West End or Paddington, buses along the Old Kent Road or Peckham Road are not a realistic alternative to NR for that kind of journey and would not be greatly affected. There wouldn't be any more Bakerloo overcrowding from Elephant than there already is from Charing Cross. I was referring to *Northern* line overcrowding north of the Elephant. If a Bakerloo extension were constructed to somewhere like Camberwell or Lewisham, the high relative frequency of the new extension would probably attract people away from other networks - I mentioned bus because of the high volume of bus traffic along Walworth Road and Camberwell Road, but it would equally apply to rail traffic from places like Peckham. If someone travels from Camberwell to the City then they may currently take a bus all the way, but with a Bakerloo extension in place, they may switch to the Tube, changing at the Elephant. Similarly, for someone travelling from Peckham into the City, they may switch from a train-only journey to a Tube-only journey, again changing at the Elephant, as it might be more convenient for their journey. The result could be worsened overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant. -- Dave Arquati Imperial College, SW7 www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London |
#7
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DLR: Big push for Dagenham branch to be constructed ahead of 2012
All true but I think congestion has worsened on Wlaworth road since
they last did a CBA but ICBW |
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