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The 'South London Overground' and the Mayoral election
On Fri, 25 Apr 2008, Mizter T wrote:
The Guardian story suggests that the Mayor has in essence won over central government. My question is thus a simple one - if Boris Johnson is elected next week instead of Ken Livingstone, would government ministers be at all keen to go ahead with a plan that allows TfL to takeover - or at least have a substantial role to play in the running of - the South London Metro routes, which would effectively hand him an early victory, one which was basically the result of Ken Livingstone's long-term game plan, or would they just pull the plug on it all? I think it would be utterly unthinkable for them to derail the project out of political spite. As Mr Farrar points out, they'd be shooting themselves in the feet in PR terms, and it would probably be illegal, not to mention very difficult to put over on the various rail industry quangos [1] who are already lined up behind it. But ... All that depends on there already being enough momentum established to carry the project through. If there is, ministers can't stop it without the foot-shooting. But if this is all still in the early stage, which i think it is, there's any amount of foot-dragging that the government can do to stall it. Stuff that isn't obviously negative, like demanding that TfL produce a more detailed safety/environmental/business/operational case than they have so far, or take on more of the cost or risk (more than they'd be willing to), or suddenly reconsidering Southern's bid, etc. Standard political wiles that ministers could do in their sleep. And anyway, a much better strategy is to let it go through, then scheme to make sure it goes horribly wrong, leaving Boris looking incompetent. tom [1] There's a word you haven't heard in a while! -- How did i get here? |
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The 'South London Overground' and the Mayoral election
Tom Anderson wrote: On Fri, 25 Apr 2008, Mizter T wrote: The Guardian story suggests that the Mayor has in essence won over central government. My question is thus a simple one - if Boris Johnson is elected next week instead of Ken Livingstone, would government ministers be at all keen to go ahead with a plan that allows TfL to takeover - or at least have a substantial role to play in the running of - the South London Metro routes, which would effectively hand him an early victory, one which was basically the result of Ken Livingstone's long-term game plan, or would they just pull the plug on it all? I think it would be utterly unthinkable for them to derail the project out of political spite. As Mr Farrar points out, they'd be shooting themselves in the feet in PR terms, and it would probably be illegal, not to mention very difficult to put over on the various rail industry quangos [1] who are already lined up behind it. But ... All that depends on there already being enough momentum established to carry the project through. If there is, ministers can't stop it without the foot-shooting. But if this is all still in the early stage, which i think it is, there's any amount of foot-dragging that the government can do to stall it. Stuff that isn't obviously negative, like demanding that TfL produce a more detailed safety/environmental/business/operational case than they have so far, or take on more of the cost or risk (more than they'd be willing to), or suddenly reconsidering Southern's bid, etc. Standard political wiles that ministers could do in their sleep. First off, see my response upthread to James Farrar where I address some of these points. But the critical phrase you use is momentum - one gets the distinct impression that this isn't a done deal, and - and I'm really not just saying this for partisan reasons - Ken Livingstone *is* the momentum on this project. You speak earlier of rail industry quangos possibly being lined up behind it - well, first off, there aren't really any rail industry quangos that have a say in these matters, it is DfT Rail's decision, and DfT is a government department led by a ministerial team. TfL's London Rail division is meanwhile part of the Greater London local governance apparatus, and ATOC is an industry body, one which represents the interests of its private sector members. Both the Times and Guardian articles [1] I linked to in my original post (thanks Mr Thant) are an interesting read, The Times one for a broad brush overview of Mayor Ken's grand plan, the Guardian one for some specifics about the possibly TfL takeover of South London Metro routes. The Guardian article clearly notes opposition both from the other train operators, and also from within DfT Rail. The idea that this plan has an inevitable momentum that will just carry it on through just isn't justified in my view. The winds can change quickly, so it could all just fall apart, or it could be watered down significantly - it needs the case to be made unremittingly right up until the deal is agreed and signed upon. Bear in mind that this is in effect central government devolving more power away from themselves, something that never comes naturally, and something they have no obligation to do. Some in DfT Rail are also apparently concerned at the idea of splitting the franchise up - I understand that there are some potential issues here, but I don't think it's anything that's unresolvable. I dare say that one part of the thinking is that Southern's profitable Sussex coast services in effect subsidise their other operations in South London. Transferring them to TfL would mean the DfT would have to take a more active role in cross-subsidising services, something that is an anathema to those who have been trying to engineer a more hands-off approach in the government's financial attitude to the railways. In addition handing control of these routes to TfL would mean they'd spend more on them - bear in mind that just under half of TfL's budget comes from a grant from central government, you can see that some in government might be worry that handing TfL control would entail something of a financial commitment. There are a number of counter argument to that - not least that fact that fare box revenue has substantially increased on the London Overground network since TfL took control due principally to them actually conducting some revenue protection (on South London Metro routes buying a ticket seems to be entirely optional - see this recent uk.r post for example [2]); the fact that such revenue would continue to go up as more people were attracted to travel by rail; the argument that TfL would be far more efficient and effective in spending any subsidy than a private TOC would be, and the basic acceptance that providing decent public transport does cost money. But I'm getting sidetracked. Ken has been driving this whole idea forward right from when he first got into office (indeed one could even point to his attempts in the early 80's, as leader of the GLC, to include British Rail in the fares fair scheme - an attempt that was blocked by central government before the whole Fares Fair scheme collapsed as a result of a fairly political legal challenge from LB Bromley - but it does perhaps demonstrate the provenance of his thinking when it comes to such matters). I just think that perhaps he's the only protagonist who can get the planets to line up on this one, and to actually make it happen. And anyway, a much better strategy is to let it go through, then scheme to make sure it goes horribly wrong, leaving Boris looking incompetent. I realise you say that half in jest, but I do genuinely doubt that anyone in government would actually want to sabotage anything in this manner. More likely, perhaps, is that the scheme gets watered down beyond all recognition, and TfL ends up with a much diminished role. ----- [1] The Times and Guardian articles: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2903879.ece http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...on08.transport [2] uk.r post about lack of ticket inspections on South London Metro: http://groups.google.co.uk/group/uk....f3137ba6bba441 |
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