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John B January 15th 09 04:09 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 15, 10:23*am, wrote:
When you're in a bust you don't start spending billions on vanity
projects.


JM Keynes called. He'd like a word.

Even in the boom years heathrow could cope with the
passenger numbers so why build a new runway now when they're
dropping?? Its like saying "oh , theres less traffic on the roads -
lets build some bypasses!"


Have you ever been to Heathrow? The suggestion that it's been able to
cope with passenger numbers at *any* point in the last 25 years is,
erm, counter-intuitive.

--
John Band
john at johnband dot org
www.johnband.org

[email protected] January 15th 09 04:19 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 15, 3:45*pm, Roland Perry wrote:
You may not have noticed the number of layoffs in banking and retail,
and the reduction of consumer spending (shops in Oxford St need
customers as well as staff).


So the tube is now nice and relaxed then in the rush hour? Everyone
can get a seat , there are no packed platforms and the trains all run
on time? That would be a first.

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Yeah right. We keep hearing that , I'd love to see some figures and
explanations of how a single runway is suddenly going to rescue our
economy. Southern briitain is already the biggest airport hub in the
whole of europe so if we can't sort the economy out based on that then
this will do naff all.

*The amount of economic activity provided to the economy by air travel
*is minimal... Even most business can be done using phone or email.

*From these remarks I can see you are completely out of touch with
reality. Although large volumes of "grunt trading" can be done
hands-off, you can generally only set up the initial relationships in
person.


I'm not saying theres *no* business travel, but the amount of
essential business travel is minute compared to the overall traffic
flows at heathrow. When you turn up at the airport how many people do
you see in suits compared to jeans and t-shirts with optional kids in
tow? Ok , some are off in first or business class lounges but thats a
small minority compared to economy.

Once upon a time the answer was a third airport - which ended up at
Stansted. You may have noticed that Stansted has expansion plans too.


Right , so the expansion that was Stansted didn't work so now we need
yet more. Tell me, where does it stop?

You're not good with analogies are you.


Hoon has just announced more roadbuilding.


Thats just road widening , not new roads. These plans have been on the
cards for ages and would probably have happened bust or not. Also
roads are a lot more important than airports to the economy.

B2003


EE507[_2_] January 15th 09 04:20 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 15, 3:45*pm, Roland Perry wrote:
In message
, at
03:44:34 on Thu, 15 Jan 2009, remarked:

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Is it really? Please name all the companies deserting the UK because
their CEOs have to wait around a bit at Heathrow. In fact, just one
will do. It seems the pro camp continually switches its argument
between the importance of transit traffic (a blinkered obsession with
competition with Frankfurt and Schiphol) and the collapse of UK
business if the runway doesn't happen.

As for the growth forecasts, a better example of a self-fulfilling
prophecy is hard to imagine now, with no pricing strategy to lock-in
the benefits, such as they are, of additional capacity.

Then there's the small issue of the net present value of carbon
emissions. If the 2003 White Paper's ambitions are realised in full,
the cost will be minus £18bn, excluding additional radiative forcing
[1]. Wonderful for UK Plc, coming on top of the perverse subsidies for
aviation resulting from a lack of taxation on fuel and tickets.

Wasn't the Climate Change Act enacted last year too? Which sectors are
expected to make cuts of 80% to allow aviation's to increase?

Bloody hell, our only hope is the Tories getting in and sticking to
their pledges.

[1] Environmental Audit Committee (2003): Budget 2003 and Aviation.

Mizter T January 15th 09 04:28 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

On 15 Jan, 16:29, "Peter Masson" wrote:

(snip)

I really can't see how a HSL from St Pancras, or more likely Euston as
that's the only obvious space for the terminus, via Heathrow, will work. It
would have to be in tunnel at least pretty well all the way to Heathrow, and
with a stop there is only going to be marginally quicker to the West
Midlands than going at 125 mph down the WCML. The Greengauge proposals (head
out of London via Northolt Junction, and follow the general alignment of the
Chiltern Line/M40, serving Heathrow with a branch, joining the main HSL in
the vicinity of Denham) seem to me to be more rational.


Quite - the basic fact that is that none of these places fall neatly
in a straight line. No spin can change that.

I suppose Heathrow could be a branch off a more direct Brum to London
HS2 line, perhaps as a simple terminus. Obvious this would mean
separate train services would need to run from either Heathrow or
Euston to and from points north.

If the CTRL had been built via a southern route then this Heathrow
branch could have been extended on to meet the CTRL, perhaps in a
subterranean junction somewhere under south London. This could have
provided for through international services via Heathrow to the
continent and beyond. But it wasn't so it can't!

Recliner[_2_] January 15th 09 04:32 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
wrote in message

On Jan 15, 3:45 pm, Roland Perry wrote:


From these remarks I can see you are completely out of touch with
reality. Although large volumes of "grunt trading" can be done
hands-off, you can generally only set up the initial relationships in
person.


I'm not saying theres *no* business travel, but the amount of
essential business travel is minute compared to the overall traffic
flows at heathrow. When you turn up at the airport how many people do
you see in suits compared to jeans and t-shirts with optional kids in
tow? Ok , some are off in first or business class lounges but thats a
small minority compared to economy.


Most C, J and F class pax check-in online, travel with little luggage
and go straight to the lounge, so they're not visible for long (though
that can be a bit of hike in LHR T5, as you have to come down and then
go up again after going through security -- they don't want you to
bypass the shops). And most no longer wear suits to fly.

And, of course, many/most Y class LHR pax are also travelling on
business, specially on the European routes (leisure pax take a more
convenient, cheaper flight from their local airport). You don't see many
families in LHR, except those travelling on long-haul routes which only
fly from Heathrow.



Roland Perry January 15th 09 04:47 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 16:34:39 on
Thu, 15 Jan 2009, Recliner remarked:
I doubt that the current St P has enough domestic platforms (on
either side) to be the London Terminus for the high speed link to
the north. Also, are they long enough?


Not enough of them, and they are approx 10 carriages long - is that
sufficient?


I would have thought new high speed trains would be longer than that
(even the Pendos will soon be 11 cars long).


It would be awkward if the Javelins were longer.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry January 15th 09 04:50 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message
, at
09:19:06 on Thu, 15 Jan 2009, remarked:
On Jan 15, 3:45*pm, Roland Perry wrote:
You may not have noticed the number of layoffs in banking and retail,
and the reduction of consumer spending (shops in Oxford St need
customers as well as staff).


So the tube is now nice and relaxed then in the rush hour? Everyone
can get a seat , there are no packed platforms and the trains all run
on time? That would be a first.


The downturn has not fully impacted those journeys. In any event, surely
everyone *expects* the tube to be crowded.

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Yeah right. We keep hearing that , I'd love to see some figures and
explanations of how a single runway is suddenly going to rescue our
economy.


It's not about "rescue", but "continuing to keep our head above
turbulent waters".

--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry January 15th 09 04:51 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message
, at
09:20:48 on Thu, 15 Jan 2009, EE507 remarked:

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Is it really? Please name all the companies deserting the UK because
their CEOs have to wait around a bit at Heathrow.


Name those who will do the same if we cancel Crossrail.
--
Roland Perry

Recliner[_2_] January 15th 09 05:02 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
"Roland Perry" wrote in message

In message , at 16:34:39 on
Thu, 15 Jan 2009, Recliner remarked:
I doubt that the current St P has enough domestic platforms (on
either side) to be the London Terminus for the high speed link to
the north. Also, are they long enough?

Not enough of them, and they are approx 10 carriages long - is that
sufficient?


I would have thought new high speed trains would be longer than that
(even the Pendos will soon be 11 cars long).


It would be awkward if the Javelins were longer.


The Class 395 trains are six cars long, but I don't know if they'll be
running doubled up for some services. If so, I assume the Kent platforms
can handle 12 trains.



Roland Perry January 15th 09 05:06 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 18:02:32 on
Thu, 15 Jan 2009, Recliner remarked:
The Class 395 trains are six cars long, but I don't know if they'll be
running doubled up for some services. If so, I assume the Kent platforms
can handle 12 trains.


I think that needs verifying, as I don't think there's much room left at
the end of the similar EMT platforms when there's 4+5 car Meridian
parked there.
--
Roland Perry

EE507[_2_] January 15th 09 05:50 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 15, 5:51*pm, Roland Perry wrote:
In message
, at
09:20:48 on Thu, 15 Jan 2009, EE507 remarked:

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Is it really? Please name all the companies deserting the UK because
their CEOs have to wait around a bit at Heathrow.


Name those who will do the same if we cancel Crossrail.


Who's claiming that? Not me. I do know that it can be physically
impossible to board the Hammersmith & City at Paddington in the
morning peak though. It's not good for UK Plc when the labour market
can't get to work...

Can we now return to the subject in hand, starting with wild claims
relating to the economic benefits of aviation and the other points you
snipped?

Roland Perry January 15th 09 06:43 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message
, at
10:50:02 on Thu, 15 Jan 2009, EE507 remarked:

Heathrow is far from being essential and isn't overloaded anyway.


It's severely overloaded, and "essential" for UK plc's international
business ambitions.


Is it really? Please name all the companies deserting the UK because
their CEOs have to wait around a bit at Heathrow.


Name those who will do the same if we cancel Crossrail.


Who's claiming that?


I was merely comparing the companies who would desert the UK if Heathrow
wasn't expanded, with those of a similar view regarding Crossrail.

--
Roland Perry

Neil Williams January 15th 09 07:15 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009 09:21:53 -0000, "Paul Scott"
wrote:

Crossrail is not an 'express' service. Its services are all stations
stoppers
from the airport, which is why it takes over Connect, not HEx. Unless it is
to have overtaking loops of course...


And unless they find that nobody wants to use HEx any more, because
Crossrail will go where people want, not Paddington.

Neil

--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the at to reply.

Neil Williams January 15th 09 07:16 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009 11:00:51 -0000, "Peter Masson"
wrote:

I envisage an underground terminus, possibly double ended, with one entrance
from the concourse at St Pancras (near the access to the Thameslink
platforms, and another with an entrance from Euston (may need a travelator).


Why St P? Most people don't want to go there either. Crossrail is
about as ideal a service to be joined to it as you can get.

Neil

--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the at to reply.

Neil Williams January 15th 09 07:18 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009 09:09:54 -0800 (PST), John B
wrote:

Have you ever been to Heathrow? The suggestion that it's been able to
cope with passenger numbers at *any* point in the last 25 years is,
erm, counter-intuitive.


IMO, the best thing to do with LHR would be to set a maximum
throughput of about 30% lower than it currently is.

International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy. Let them change at CDG or Schiphol instead.

Neil

--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the at to reply.

Roland Perry January 15th 09 07:25 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 20:16:36 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
Why St P?


For connections to you-rope?

--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry January 15th 09 07:29 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 20:18:58 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy.


It "tops up" the long haul flights that wouldn't have been economic to
run otherwise. So the transfer passengers are assisting UK residents
ability to fly almost anywhere in the world daily.
--
Roland Perry

Neil Williams January 15th 09 07:33 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009 20:25:00 +0000, Roland Perry
wrote:

For connections to you-rope?


I doubt it. Why fly to Thiefrow and take a train to Paris/Bruxelles
when you could fly direct?

Neil

--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the at to reply.

Roland Perry January 15th 09 07:40 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 20:33:39 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
For connections to you-rope?


I doubt it. Why fly to Thiefrow and take a train to Paris/Bruxelles
when you could fly direct?


Depends where you are starting from.

--
Roland Perry

Mr Thant January 15th 09 08:08 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On 15 Jan, 18:06, Roland Perry wrote:
I think that needs verifying, as I don't think there's much room left at
the end of the similar EMT platforms when there's 4+5 car Meridian
parked there.


The 395's carriages are shorter:

(6+6)* 20m = 240m
(5+4)* 23m = 207 m

We also know a 5+5 Meridian fits, which is 230m.

The Kent platforms do extend a bit further north than the MML ones,
though they start a little further north also. I think both sets have
a usable length of at least 250m, possibly 260m, although I don't have
a detailed enough diagram handy to say for sure.

U

tim..... January 15th 09 08:11 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 20:16:36 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
Why St P?


For connections to you-rope?


Or better still, direct services that don't actually stop at St P.

tim




tim..... January 15th 09 08:22 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 20:18:58 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy.


It "tops up" the long haul flights that wouldn't have been economic to run
otherwise. So the transfer passengers are assisting UK residents ability
to fly almost anywhere in the world daily.


I don't buy this arguement.

Most of the places that business people want to fly to, that are currently
served from LHR, would have have more than enough frequency if they were
supported by the UK demand alone. I accept that there are one or two places
(like say, Nairobi) that need connecting pax but most don't.

Claiming that we need 10 flights a day to FRA so that Germans can connect
onto flights to NYC (or Americans in the reverse direction) is a nonsense,
yet because of the way that tickets are sold, I bet quite a few do.

Personally, I don't believe that we should be encouraging this traffic.

tim





John B January 15th 09 10:02 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 15, 9:22*pm, "tim....." wrote:
"Roland Perry" wrote in message

...

In message , at 20:18:58 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy.


It "tops up" the long haul flights that wouldn't have been economic to run
otherwise. So the transfer passengers are assisting UK residents ability
to fly almost anywhere in the world daily.


I don't buy this arguement.

Most of the places that business people want to fly to, that are currently
served from LHR, would have have more than enough frequency if they were
supported by the UK demand alone. *I accept that there are one or two places
(like say, Nairobi) that need connecting pax but most don't.


I'm flying to Hyderabad next month on a direct BA flight (the same one
I went on in December). When I went last time, at least 25% of the
passengers I saw were transfer passengers - mostly from the US.

Most places aren't New York...

Claiming that we need 10 flights a day to FRA so that Germans can connect
onto flights to NYC (or Americans in the reverse direction) is a nonsense,
yet because of the way that tickets are sold, I bet quite a few do.


Indeed, and if ~all the transfer pax at LHR were doing FRA-LHR-JFK,
then it'd be pretty much non-beneficial for the rest of us. But the
average transfer journey AFAICT looks a lot more like Vancouver-
Hyderabad than Frankfurt-New York.

--
John Band
john at johnband dot org
www.johnband.org

Charles Ellson January 15th 09 10:25 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:11:01 -0000, "tim....."
wrote:


"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 20:16:36 on Thu,
15 Jan 2009, Neil Williams remarked:
Why St P?


For connections to you-rope?


Or better still, direct services that don't actually stop at St P.

You don't understand the rules of the game. Only London is allowed to
have direct links to the rest of the world.

[email protected] January 15th 09 11:41 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In article ,
(Recliner) wrote:

Most C, J and F class pax check-in online, travel with little
luggage and go straight to the lounge, so they're not visible for
long (though that can be a bit of hike in LHR T5, as you have to
come down and then go up again after going through security -- they
don't want you to bypass the shops). And most no longer wear suits
to fly.

And, of course, many/most Y class LHR pax are also travelling on
business, specially on the European routes (leisure pax take a more
convenient, cheaper flight from their local airport). You don't see
many families in LHR, except those travelling on long-haul routes
which only fly from Heathrow.


Huh? That would be why my family travelled out and in through Heathrow at
Christmas then?

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Mizter T January 16th 09 01:17 AM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

On 16 Jan, 00:41, wrote:

In article ,
(Recliner) wrote:

Most C, J and F class pax check-in online, travel with little
luggage and go straight to the lounge, so they're not visible for
long (though that can be a bit of hike in LHR T5, as you have to
come down and then go up again after going through security -- they
don't want you to bypass the shops). And most no longer wear suits
to fly.


And, of course, many/most Y class LHR pax are also travelling on
business, specially on the European routes (leisure pax take a more
convenient, cheaper flight from their local airport). You don't see
many families in LHR, except those travelling on long-haul routes
which only fly from Heathrow.


Huh? That would be why my family travelled out and in through Heathrow at
Christmas then?


Agreed - Recliner's picture of a family-free Heathrow is not one I
recognise either.

Roland Perry January 16th 09 07:36 AM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message , at 21:22:31 on Thu, 15
Jan 2009, tim..... remarked:

International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy.


It "tops up" the long haul flights that wouldn't have been economic to run
otherwise. So the transfer passengers are assisting UK residents ability
to fly almost anywhere in the world daily.


I don't buy this arguement.

Most of the places that business people want to fly to, that are currently
served from LHR, would have have more than enough frequency if they were
supported by the UK demand alone. I accept that there are one or two places
(like say, Nairobi) that need connecting pax but most don't.


I disagree. It's not hard to find destinations with less than one flight
a day (ie 3 or 4 per week), or where it's clear that a service can only
be supported from major hub cities (with transfer passengers feeding
in).

A recent example is Hyderabad (India's Silicon Valley) where until the
end of last year the only direct flights from Europe were one a day from
AMS and FRA, but BA has now added a daily flight from LHR.

Claiming that we need 10 flights a day to FRA so that Germans can connect
onto flights to NYC (or Americans in the reverse direction) is a nonsense,
yet because of the way that tickets are sold, I bet quite a few do.


The issue here isn't flights to popular destinations like NYC (where you
can also fly to from Manchester, as well as dozens of direct flights
already from LHR). Obviously, the more places are served direct from
London, the less people have to hop over to FRA if that's the only place
with an onward service.

And those direct flights from London need to be supported by transit
passengers from elsewhere in Europe (that don't have their own direct
flights).
--
Roland Perry

dave hill[_2_] January 16th 09 11:41 AM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
tim..... wrote:


When you're in a bust you don't start spending billions on vanity
projects.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The one (and only) good thing about this decision, is that it isn't a
decision to spend their (aka our) money, but to allow a PLC to spend its
money.

If there is no business case for the plan, the banks wont lend BAA the
funds.

tim



but hang on i thought WE owned the banks (the taxpayers one and all have
given the banks[except Barclays who are in bed with mid eastern
investors] copious amounts of ackers to prevent their demise

Stimpy January 16th 09 12:24 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:41:45 +0000, dave hill wrote

The one (and only) good thing about this decision, is that it isn't a
decision to spend their (aka our) money, but to allow a PLC to spend its
money.

If there is no business case for the plan, the banks wont lend BAA the
funds.

but hang on i thought WE owned the banks


No, we have a stake in the banks. That's a VERY different thing to owning
them



Tom Anderson January 16th 09 12:40 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009, EE507 wrote:

Then there's the small issue of the net present value of carbon
emissions. If the 2003 White Paper's ambitions are realised in full,
the cost will be minus £18bn, excluding additional radiative forcing
[1]. Wonderful for UK Plc, coming on top of the perverse subsidies for
aviation resulting from a lack of taxation on fuel and tickets.

Wasn't the Climate Change Act enacted last year too? Which sectors are
expected to make cuts of 80% to allow aviation's to increase?

Bloody hell, our only hope is the Tories getting in and sticking to
their pledges.


So basically, we're ****ed, then?

tom

--
Oh, and sometimes in order to survive you have to drink the irradiated
water from an old toilet. -- Jon, on Fallout

Andrew Heenan January 16th 09 03:00 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
"Stimpy" wrote
but hang on i thought WE owned the banks

No, we have a stake in the banks.
That's a VERY different thing to owning them.


Very different indeed. basically, we've assumed their debts in exchange for
a large share, which interestingly gives the taxpayer what politicians call
'bugger all' control.

And our leaders have chosen not to exercise what little control they have,
anyway.

Not what I'd call a good deal, but nobody consulted me - they took advice
from merchant bankers, and most of them were the ones responsible for the
mess.

That's democracy, apparently ;o)
--

Andrew



Mizter T January 16th 09 03:06 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

On 16 Jan, 08:36, Roland Perry wrote:

In message , at 21:22:31 on Thu, 15
Jan 2009, tim..... remarked:

International transfer business doesn't provide a lot to the UK
economy.


It "tops up" the long haul flights that wouldn't have been economic to run
otherwise. So the transfer passengers are assisting UK residents ability
to fly almost anywhere in the world daily.


I don't buy this argument.


Most of the places that business people want to fly to, that are currently
served from LHR, would have have more than enough frequency if they were
supported by the UK demand alone. *I accept that there are one or two places
(like say, Nairobi) that need connecting pax but most don't.


I disagree. It's not hard to find destinations with less than one flight
a day (ie 3 or 4 per week), or where it's clear that a service can only
be supported from major hub cities (with transfer passengers feeding
in).

A recent example is Hyderabad (India's Silicon Valley) where until the
end of last year the only direct flights from Europe were one a day from
AMS and FRA, but BA has now added a daily flight from LHR.

Claiming that we need 10 flights a day to FRA so that Germans can connect
onto flights to NYC (or Americans in the reverse direction) is a nonsense,
yet because of the way that tickets are sold, I bet quite a few do.


The issue here isn't flights to popular destinations like NYC (where you
can also fly to from Manchester, as well as dozens of direct flights
already from LHR). Obviously, the more places are served direct from
London, the less people have to hop over to FRA if that's the only place
with an onward service.

And those direct flights from London need to be supported by transit
passengers from elsewhere in Europe (that don't have their own direct
flights).


This is ultimately what it's all about, is it not? Basically the idea
is that London and hence Britain benefit from being the crossroads to
anywhere (or at least the air travel equivalent of such!).

(Though I suppose to an extent there is a separate but connected
argument of there being a critical mass of passengers from the UK
using Heathrow as opposed to flying direct from a regional airport -
of course those regional airports generally don't offer flights to
more obscure destinations, but the critical mass of passengers using
LHR may well mean that the frequency of flights to less-obscure
destinations is greater.)

I certainly understand this transfer passenger argument and by no
means do I discount it, but I guess essentially my take on it is a bit
different - which is basically ok, so London will lose (or never get
in the first place) some direct flights to obscurer destinations in
the world, but to what extent does that matter? How badly would this
really affect business in Britain? I wouldn't suggest it would have no
effect, but I can't help but think that the supposed ill-effects on
British business are simply overblown.

What's more I would further put forward the argument that there is a
quality-of-life versus (big) business calculus in play here, and if
some of these travellers to obscurer destinations were not in fact to
make that trip at all (as opposed to making it via a transfer as AMS,
CDG or wherever) then there is also a environmental effects versus
(big) business calculus in play as well.

Incidentally the quality-of-life argument basically revolves around
how many people would be affected by aircraft noise (the far broader
quality-of-life relating to environmental damage from CO2 emission
argument is really part of the latter calculus concerning
environmental effects), and also by the levelling of a town to make
way for the runway. There are some quite different takes on this -
John B's take in a previous discussion was basically that only a
relatively small number of people are affected by this, whilst I
essentially fundamentally disagreed with this and think the noise has
a far wider effect over a lot of London and western Home Counties (if
you really want you can read what we both had to say in this recent
uk.r thread [1]).

Of course I could be wrong. I guess at least part of the counter
argument runs like this - Britain is just a small island in northern
Europe which essentially has to survive and has prospered on it's
wits. It is significantly helped in this regard by the fact that
English is a 'world language' (or should that be pure accident of
English being a world language?!), but it has no intrinsic right to
find itself to the forefront of world affairs and business. In order
to maintain and grow on its position and success it has to stay on the
ball and ensure that it remains in the game - securing Heathrow as one
of the major crossroads of the world means that London and Britain
benefit from this.

As I said above, I'm simply not entirely convinced by this argument.
For example, everyone said Frankfurt would become the European centre
of finance after the Euro was established and London would be left out
in the cold - this didn't happen (and instead it was many fine British
minds that helped to devise house of cards style financial instruments
but we'll leave that point well aside!). That said, there are some
speculating that Frankfurt the understudy is waiting in the wings
ready to pounce on London as soon as the global economy gets back on
the up, and perhaps better air connections to Frankfurt would help in
this regard when for example a company is choosing where to locate. (A
further argument some might come out with is something like
'whatever', let Frankfurt play host to the financial services circus
instead - but then we'd kind of need to work out what we could do to
replace that sector in Britain, though of course in many ways perhaps
we need to be looking at being good at doing some other sorts of stuff
anyway!)

What happens at Heathrow does rather seem to depend upon who wins the
next general election - and I dare say the present government's
decision to press ahead on the third runway may be a contributory
factor in them not being re-elected - though of course how big the
'Heathrow factor' will be in the eyes of the electorate remains to be
seen - will it just be a very local issue, or will it be a factor for
a rather larger number of voters. This last question can basically be
seen as a variant on the disagreement that John B and I had over how
will be affected by the expansion of Heathrow - he might say that it's
only really a niche issue, I would respond by saying it's a rather
wider concern than that. (Though I don't really want to put words into
John's mouth as he's perfectly capable of speaking for himself!)


-----
[1] "Gatwick second runway again" - uk.r thread from December '08:
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/uk....06bd255bb0d0e/

Roland Perry January 16th 09 03:39 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
In message
, at
08:06:21 on Fri, 16 Jan 2009, Mizter T remarked:

The issue here isn't flights to popular destinations like NYC (where you
can also fly to from Manchester, as well as dozens of direct flights
already from LHR). Obviously, the more places are served direct from
London, the less people have to hop over to FRA if that's the only place
with an onward service.

And those direct flights from London need to be supported by transit
passengers from elsewhere in Europe (that don't have their own direct
flights).


This is ultimately what it's all about, is it not? Basically the idea
is that London and hence Britain benefit from being the crossroads to
anywhere (or at least the air travel equivalent of such!).


Just like people who happen to live in the Kings Cross area benefit from
the "rail station to Europe" on their doorstep - and there aren't enough
of them to justify it without lots of other people travelling to
Stp/Kings Cross to change trains.

(Though I suppose to an extent there is a separate but connected
argument of there being a critical mass of passengers from the UK
using Heathrow as opposed to flying direct from a regional airport -
of course those regional airports generally don't offer flights to
more obscure destinations, but the critical mass of passengers using
LHR may well mean that the frequency of flights to less-obscure
destinations is greater.)


Generally, we are talking about a different set of destinations from the
regional airports - holiday places; whereas Heathrow has more of the
business destinations. You can see a lot of this in the seasonality of
the schedules.

I haven't looked recently, but the only place with anything like 365 day
service to Lisbon 2 years ago was London, plus some regional airports
only in the summer.

I certainly understand this transfer passenger argument and by no
means do I discount it, but I guess essentially my take on it is a bit
different - which is basically ok, so London will lose (or never get
in the first place) some direct flights to obscurer destinations in
the world, but to what extent does that matter? How badly would this
really affect business in Britain? I wouldn't suggest it would have no
effect, but I can't help but think that the supposed ill-effects on
British business are simply overblown.


You'd be surprised how disruptive it is to a business schedule to
discover you need to go somewhere with flights only 3 or 4 days a week.
Especially if getting to a Monday meeting means leaving on Saturday! Or
alternatively doing what people here seem to hate, taking a hop via AMS,
CDG or FRA instead.

What's more I would further put forward the argument that there is a
quality-of-life versus (big) business calculus in play here, and if
some of these travellers to obscurer destinations were not in fact to
make that trip at all (as opposed to making it via a transfer as AMS,
CDG or wherever) then there is also a environmental effects versus
(big) business calculus in play as well.


Few people fly anywhere on business unless they *have* to - that's my
experience anyway. It gets pretty boring pretty quickly, and costs a lot
of money as well.

--
Roland Perry

EE507[_2_] January 16th 09 05:01 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Jan 16, 1:40*pm, Tom Anderson wrote:
On Thu, 15 Jan 2009, EE507 wrote:
Then there's the small issue of the net present value of carbon
emissions. If the 2003 White Paper's ambitions are realised in full,
the cost will be minus £18bn, excluding additional radiative forcing
[1]. Wonderful for UK Plc, coming on top of the perverse subsidies for
aviation resulting from a lack of taxation on fuel and tickets.


Wasn't the Climate Change Act enacted last year too? Which sectors are
expected to make cuts of 80% to allow aviation's to increase?


Bloody hell, our only hope is the Tories getting in and sticking to
their pledges.


So basically, we're ****ed, then?

tom


Well, quite.

Stimpy January 16th 09 05:29 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
On Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:00:11 +0000, Andrew Heenan wrote
"Stimpy" wrote
but hang on i thought WE owned the banks

No, we have a stake in the banks.
That's a VERY different thing to owning them.


Very different indeed. basically, we've assumed their debts in exchange for
a large share, which interestingly gives the taxpayer what politicians call
'bugger all' control.

And our leaders have chosen not to exercise what little control they have,
anyway.

Not what I'd call a good deal, but nobody consulted me - they took advice
from merchant bankers, and most of them were the ones responsible for the
mess.

That's democracy, apparently ;o)


My thoughts exactly


dave hill[_2_] January 16th 09 06:02 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 
Stimpy wrote:
On Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:41:45 +0000, dave hill wrote
The one (and only) good thing about this decision, is that it isn't a
decision to spend their (aka our) money, but to allow a PLC to spend its
money.

If there is no business case for the plan, the banks wont lend BAA the
funds.

but hang on i thought WE owned the banks


No, we have a stake in the banks. That's a VERY different thing to owning
them


well according to the BBC we (government) have about a 60% stake in
Royal Bank of Scotland that would mean on the Stock market that there
would have to be a bid for the whole schee bang IF it was just another
company building up a stake of that magnitude

And it looks as though more might be needed - where all this money
is coming from god knows


Peter Masson January 17th 09 12:03 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

"Recliner" wrote

The Class 395 trains are six cars long, but I don't know if they'll be
running doubled up for some services. If so, I assume the Kent platforms
can handle 12 trains.

AIUI the peak trains will be 12 cars, apart from the Rochester - St Pancras
service which will be a single unit because of short platforms. The trains
via Ashford will consist of separate portions from Thanet via Canterbury
West and Dover, joining at Ashford.

Peter



Peter Masson January 17th 09 12:10 PM

Heathrow third runway to get the go ahead
 

"Neil Williams" wrote

Why St P? Most people don't want to go there either. Crossrail is
about as ideal a service to be joined to it as you can get.

We had an earlier thread about the usefulness of HEx once Crossrail starts.
ISTM that an HEx terminus at Paddington will lose a lot of passengers to
Crossrail, and I was considering another practical terminus for HEx. Even
with HS2 there'll be a lot of passengers into Euston, St Pancras and Kings
Cross, a not insignificant proportion of whom will want to get to Heathrow.

Peter




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