In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:16:21 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you only want to look at phase 1, fair enough. The analysis will have to
be for the period from 1977 to 1986, when T4 opened. What was the rate of
return, positive or negative, on the capital investments in the extended
line, stations (two all-new and one re-built) and four extra trains, made
over those ten years?

I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:22 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Further into the future, if a third runway is built, there will be a new
western terminal, which may be adjacent to T5, and share its three
underground stations.

There are only two. Recent poorly-written articles about a "secret
station" are in fact about extra as-yet-unused platforms at the heavy
rail station.

When it eventually opens, who knows whether it will be shown as a new GWR
station or a pair of extra platforms at what is currently the HEx station?
The GWR station may be gated, the HEx station isn't, as it's free to the
central station.

It's inevitable that it'll be just one station because there will be
through trains (I don't think it's yet been decided if HEx or Crossrail
would run the 2tph Paddington-Heathrow-Reading trains; very unlikely to
be FGW or successor).

Through trains will presumably use the current HEx platform pair. The
currently unused platform pair could be used for a different service,
perhaps to Staines and beyond.

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:16:21 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you only want to look at phase 1, fair enough. The analysis will have to
be for the period from 1977 to 1986, when T4 opened. What was the rate of
return, positive or negative, on the capital investments in the extended
line, stations (two all-new and one re-built) and four extra trains, made
over those ten years?

I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money? How about
a calculation in 1985 money of the then operating surplus vs construction
cost (incl four trains) of phase 1. Obviously the surplus should exceed the
interest rates of the day, perhaps 20%.

Also, strictly speaking, the incremental revenue should take into account
that some of the airport traffic would previously have used Hounslow West
station, and so wasn't new traffic at all. However, I've no idea how data
like that can be obtained after so many years.

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 18:53:01 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.

West, more likely.

If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.
--
Roland Perry

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 18:53:01 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.

West, more likely.

Yes, my mistake.

If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.

What about the cost of four more trains? And was it based on 1985 service
levels and fares, or today's? And did you allow for 1980's interest rates
on the capital costs?

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:11 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?
--
Roland Perry

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:12 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.

What about the cost of four more trains?

I didn't include them, but at £1.8m for four of them, it's getting into
the noise level for the £26m total cost.

And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

And did you allow for 1980's interest rates on the capital costs?

I don't think they literally borrowed the money to build it, but they
had the rate would have been the lowest government borrowing rate.

--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:11 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."