David Cantrell wrote:

The other problem is that elected Mayors are not seen as a stepping stone
to
higher things because it's hard to know if one can return to the Commons,
so
the ambitious are not drawn to the post

Johnson isn't ambitious?

He has ambitions but he was also somewhat drafted rather than initially
seeking it - and there were signs his Commons career was stalling back in
2007. Furthermore many Conservatives seriously doubted Livingstone could be
defeated in 2008. Runing Boris for the Mayoralty was a gamble that paid off
for the party at the tiny cost of subsequently losing him from the Commons
but for Boris it's removed him from the main centre political attention
without a clear route for returning.

People talk of Boris as a potential future Conservative leader but they
forget that it's difficult to make a successful return to the Commons and
obtain the top prizes, and especially so in the short run. The last major
party leader to have had an interrupted parliamentary career was Michael
Foot (who was out between 1955 and 1960) and he obtain the Labour leadership
20 years after he returned. The last Conservative leader was Sir Alec
Douglas-Home - leaving aside his transfer from the Lords to the Commons he
had lost his seat in the 1945 election before regaining it in 1950, but
again that was over 13 years before he obtained the leadership (and at
several stages he had astounding luck in his career). The last Liberal
leader was Sir Herbert Samuel who lost his seat in the 1918 election then
had a career outside party politics before returning to the Liberal battle
and the Commons in 1929 and becoming the leader of the main party in the
1931 splits. The most recent other case is Roy Jenkins coming back from
Europe and forming the SDP but their failure is a deterrant to anyone else
trying the route of a new party.

And of course there are the failures - both Michael Portillo and Malcolm
Rifkind fell in the 1997 general election and so were absent from the
subsequent leadership election. Each eventually got back to the Commons but
by the time the leadership came up they found their original political bases
had moved on. Conservative MPs still retain a lot of power in the leadership
election and it's questionable whether a returned Johnson would have
sufficient support to make it to the final two and thus go to the full
membership.

If Boris is re-elected in 2012 then his term won't expire until 2016 and to
get back into the Commons he would either have to wait until a general
election in 2020 (thanks to the fixed terms legislation) or win a
by-election. But if the Conservatives are still in power after 2015, which
many seem to expect, then being the government candidate in a by-election is
a risky strategy, especially if it seems the candidate wants to go straight
to the top. However if he waits until 2020 then it's likely that by then
Cameron will have already stepped down and a new leader will have been
elected so Boris would have missed his chance. The only other possibility is
if he could contest the leadership as a non-MP - I forget if the rules are
explicit on this point, but it's a very risky strategy.

The main Westminster style country where this happens a lot is Canada, where
party leaderships at both federal and provincial/territorial level are often
contested by non-MPs, with former MPs, MPs from the other level, Mayors of
big cities, private businessmen, union leaders and others often standing.
There is also a partially observed covention in Canada that if a leader
doesn't have a seat then another MP will resign and the leader will stand in
the by-election without opposition from the other parties. (It's not always
observed and can sometimes go wrong - John Tory in Ontario is the most
prominent recent case.) Some leaders don't have a by-election and instead
fight a seat in the main election, even if they've already been appointed
Prime Minister/Premier - John Turner in 1984 is the most prominent federal
case.

Over in Australia this practice may take off if a current experiment works -
in the state of Queensland the Liberal National Party is going into next
year's election led by Campbell Newman, who has just finished as Mayor of
Brisbane and is leading from outside the state legislature. Brisbane is
Australia's largest local authority (most of what we think of as the big
Australian cities are collections of multiple local authorities - Brisbane
is the only case of a super city authority taking effect) and the Mayor is
directly elected, so this could be one to watch for Boris's chances.

In article ,
(Tim Roll-Pickering) wrote:

David Cantrell wrote:

The other problem is that elected Mayors are not seen as a stepping
stone to higher things because it's hard to know if one can return to
the Commons, so the ambitious are not drawn to the post

Johnson isn't ambitious?

He has ambitions but he was also somewhat drafted rather than
initially seeking it - and there were signs his Commons career was
stalling back in 2007. Furthermore many Conservatives seriously
doubted Livingstone could be defeated in 2008. Runing Boris for the
Mayoralty was a gamble that paid off for the party at the tiny cost
of subsequently losing him from the Commons but for Boris it's
removed him from the main centre political attention without a clear
route for returning.

People talk of Boris as a potential future Conservative leader but
they forget that it's difficult to make a successful return to the
Commons and obtain the top prizes, and especially so in the short
run. The last major party leader to have had an interrupted
parliamentary career was Michael Foot (who was out between 1955 and
1960) and he obtain the Labour leadership 20 years after he returned.
The last Conservative leader was Sir Alec Douglas-Home - leaving
aside his transfer from the Lords to the Commons he had lost his seat
in the 1945 election before regaining it in 1950, but again that was
over 13 years before he obtained the leadership (and at several
stages he had astounding luck in his career). The last Liberal leader
was Sir Herbert Samuel who lost his seat in the 1918 election then
had a career outside party politics before returning to the Liberal
battle and the Commons in 1929 and becoming the leader of the main
party in the 1931 splits. The most recent other case is Roy Jenkins
coming back from Europe and forming the SDP but their failure is a
deterrant to anyone else trying the route of a new party.

And of course there are the failures - both Michael Portillo and
Malcolm Rifkind fell in the 1997 general election and so were absent
from the subsequent leadership election. Each eventually got back to
the Commons but by the time the leadership came up they found their
original political bases had moved on. Conservative MPs still retain
a lot of power in the leadership election and it's questionable
whether a returned Johnson would have sufficient support to make it
to the final two and thus go to the full membership.

If Boris is re-elected in 2012 then his term won't expire until 2016
and to get back into the Commons he would either have to wait until a
general election in 2020 (thanks to the fixed terms legislation) or
win a by-election. But if the Conservatives are still in power after
2015, which many seem to expect, then being the government candidate
in a by-election is a risky strategy, especially if it seems the
candidate wants to go straight to the top. However if he waits until
2020 then it's likely that by then Cameron will have already stepped
down and a new leader will have been elected so Boris would have
missed his chance. The only other possibility is if he could contest
the leadership as a non-MP - I forget if the rules are explicit on
this point, but it's a very risky strategy.

The main Westminster style country where this happens a lot is
Canada, where party leaderships at both federal and
provincial/territorial level are often contested by non-MPs, with
former MPs, MPs from the other level, Mayors of big cities, private
businessmen, union leaders and others often standing. There is also a
partially observed covention in Canada that if a leader doesn't have
a seat then another MP will resign and the leader will stand in the
by-election without opposition from the other parties. (It's not
always observed and can sometimes go wrong - John Tory in Ontario is
the most prominent recent case.) Some leaders don't have a
by-election and instead fight a seat in the main election, even if
they've already been appointed Prime Minister/Premier - John Turner
in 1984 is the most prominent federal case.

Over in Australia this practice may take off if a current experiment
works - in the state of Queensland the Liberal National Party is
going into next year's election led by Campbell Newman, who has just
finished as Mayor of Brisbane and is leading from outside the state
legislature. Brisbane is Australia's largest local authority (most of
what we think of as the big Australian cities are collections of
multiple local authorities - Brisbane is the only case of a super
city authority taking effect) and the Mayor is directly elected, so
this could be one to watch for Boris's chances.

You've forgotten the main example of interrupted career followed by
ministerial success, Winston Churchill. But he broke so many "rules" that he
is probably the exception that proves most of them.

--
Colin Rosenstiel