Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]


This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.

That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

wrote:

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes

Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]



This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You
point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching
a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And
it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a
bomb is going to go off.

If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the
Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the
station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train?

If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.

If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible
for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly
Line bomb.

I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by
one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a
second person?

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com



Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.


That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

Ed Lake wrote:
wrote:

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes

Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]



This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You
point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching
a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And
it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a
bomb is going to go off.

The bomb will go off after you have left. Riding the train one stop is
a good way not to draw attention to a package that is left under a
seat.


If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the
Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the
station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train?

The first two will be on a train for about ten minutes and several
stops. If they are unattended you don't want to draw attention to them
because someone might decide to play hero and chuck it off the train.
The last one can be a throw on because they won't have time to do
anything about it. Also you want to be sure you can exit the station
when all hell breaks lose. You don't want to get caught on a train
when the system is shut down.



If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.

Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In the scenario I laid
out, you could actually have a 4 minute layover at Euston and still
have time to get to the Picadilly Line platform. If you drop the
Picadilly Line bomb at 10:50, that gives you another minute. So for a
total of 12 minutes you have up to 3 minutes of slack time. Picking
the Picadilly Line in this scenario actually builds in additional
buffers because you can pick EITHER trains going westward or eastward.


If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible
for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly
Line bomb.


The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart. According to people who ride the tube, you could probably get to
the platform in 3 minutes without running. The front of the car (the
southernmost end of the platform) is right near the bottom of the
escalator.


I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by
one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a
second person?

A second person buys you a quite a few benefits. Lookout, failsafe,
distraction if needed, someone to run interference, moral support. To
my thinking the difference between one or two is not terribly
significant because in either case you come back to .... it could be
anyone not just jihadists.



Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com



Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.


That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

Peter Vos wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

wrote:


Clive D. W. Feather wrote:


In article .com,
Peter Vos writes


Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]



This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You
point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching
a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And
it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a
bomb is going to go off.


The bomb will go off after you have left. Riding the train one stop is
a good way not to draw attention to a package that is left under a
seat.


If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the
Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the
station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train?


The first two will be on a train for about ten minutes and several
stops. If they are unattended you don't want to draw attention to them
because someone might decide to play hero and chuck it off the train.
The last one can be a throw on because they won't have time to do
anything about it. Also you want to be sure you can exit the station
when all hell breaks lose. You don't want to get caught on a train
when the system is shut down.

If someone had thrown a bomb onto a train just as the doors were
closing, I think we'd have heard about that. The place would have been
in a panic long BEFORE the bomb exploded. And I think there are ways to
stop the train in an emergency.


If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.


Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In the scenario I laid
out, you could actually have a 4 minute layover at Euston and still
have time to get to the Picadilly Line platform. If you drop the
Picadilly Line bomb at 10:50, that gives you another minute. So for a
total of 12 minutes you have up to 3 minutes of slack time. Picking
the Picadilly Line in this scenario actually builds in additional
buffers because you can pick EITHER trains going westward or eastward.

Maybe, but I just don't see the culprit getting on and STAYING on any
train after planting the first bomb. The objective after planting the
first bomb would be to quickly plant the second and start working your
way to the surface, planting the third on the way up. You do NOT go
somewhere else and then RETURN to a place where you've been before.

To me this all seems to indicate some person who had travelled to King's
Cross hundreds of times and planned the steps out long before he
actually committed the crime.


If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible
for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly
Line bomb.



The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart. According to people who ride the tube, you could probably get to
the platform in 3 minutes without running. The front of the car (the
southernmost end of the platform) is right near the bottom of the
escalator.

Yes, I saw that posting. It's further evidence that the crime COULD
HAVE been done by one person. He put the Picadilly Line bomb on the
train on his way toward the surface. He simply got off the escalator,
put the bomb on the train, then left and got back on the escalator again
to head to the surface.

He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it
out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb was
dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color that
matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he could
have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention. And if
he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit with the
last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got on the
wrong train by accident.

I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by
one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a
second person?


A second person buys you a quite a few benefits. Lookout, failsafe,
distraction if needed, someone to run interference, moral support. To
my thinking the difference between one or two is not terribly
significant because in either case you come back to .... it could be
anyone not just jihadists.

A second person also buys you a lot of risks. There was no need for
lookouts, there was no report of distractions, there was no apparent
need to run interference, and you can never fully trust anyone else
involved in a crime, so moral support isn't as important as keeping the
secret. And the only good way to keep a secret is to have it known by
only one person.

I agree that it could be "anyone not just jihadists". That's what first
intrigued me about all this. I saw TV reports which said that area of
London has a large Muslim population. If true, that can be viewed in
two ways: the culprit was a Muslim from the area OR the culprit knew the
area had a large Muslim population and knew they would get the blame.

I don't want to speculate along those lines, but I'm certainly not
discounting any possibility. That's why I think it's important that the
police consider the idea that this could be the work of one person. If
it was, you can literally compute where he was at almost every moment.

If it is determined that - because of the times the trains arrived or
departed - it could not possibly have been done by one person, THEN you
can start looking at how it could have been done by two people.

If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com



Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.



That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

Ed Lake wrote:


If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.


You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into
any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That
is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot
for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one
occasion.

I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You
certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie
in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested.

Peter Vos wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:



If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.



You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into
any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That
is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot
for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one
occasion.

I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You
certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie
in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested.

Peter,

I'm not locked into a one man theory. I just feel that IF it could have
been done by one person, then it almost certainly WAS done by one person
and that needs to be checked out as soon as possible.

AND, if it was done by one person, then knowing the times of arrivals of
the various trains would tell you where the culprit was at almost every
moment he was inside King's Cross Station!

That means you can find him on the surveillance camera tapes going from
point A to point B to point C.

If you have more than one person involved, then finding the culprit on
surveillance tapes gets vastly more complicated. So, I would have
people verify that it was not done by a single person before discounting
that idea. That's all I'm saying.

The objective is to get the guy - regardless of whether he's al Qaeda,
IRA, an anti-G8 anarchist or just some lone nut on a crazy mission.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

In article , (Ed Lake)
wrote:

He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it
out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb
was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color
that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he
could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention.
And if he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit
with the last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got
on the wrong train by accident.

He couldn't have placed a bomb under any C stock or 73ts seat. Look at the
stocks. It can't be done. But there is plenty of space by doors where bags
would likely not be noticed.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Colin Rosenstiel wrote:

In article , (Ed Lake)
wrote:


He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it
out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb
was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color
that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he
could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention.
And if he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit
with the last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got
on the wrong train by accident.


He couldn't have placed a bomb under any C stock or 73ts seat. Look at the
stocks. It can't be done. But there is plenty of space by doors where bags
would likely not be noticed.

Great! Thanks! I appreciate being corrected with a better idea. The
space by the doors makes it EASIER for someone to place a bomb and then
leave the train before the doors close.

Ed

Ed Lake wrote in uk.transport.london on Tue, 12 Jul 2005 09:51:13
-0500 :

Colin Rosenstiel wrote:

He couldn't have placed a bomb under any C stock or 73ts seat. Look at the
stocks. It can't be done. But there is plenty of space by doors where bags
would likely not be noticed.

Great! Thanks! I appreciate being corrected with a better idea. The
space by the doors makes it EASIER for someone to place a bomb and then
leave the train before the doors close.

IME quite a lot of people prefer to congregate by the doors, on the
basis that they believe they'll be able to get off quicker at their
stop. Once the train has filled (which is generally the case by the
time a westbound Picc line service gets to KX) anyone trying to use
this area to place a bag or package will run the risk of being blocked
by someone already there, and I think it would be difficult to do this
in one move at one station.

--
Dave Hillam
"Then old Nobodaddy aloft, Farted & belchd & coughd
And said: I love hanging & drawing & quartering
Every bit as well as war & slaughtering"

In message , at 11:39:30 on Mon, 11 Jul
2005, Ed Lake remarked:
If the bomb was dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor)
or a color that matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary
looking, he could have slipped it under a seat without attracting much
attention.

Except the trains don't have an "under the seat", in that sense. Some of
the seats have cushions which can be lifted up, but you couldn't do that
without attracting *lots* of attention (and many, perhaps not all) are
fixed in place with cable-ties as part of a years-old security
precaution.
--
Roland Perry